All posts by Mike

Jewell

I was in Centennial Olympic Park hours before the bomb went off. I’d watched women’s volleyball. Maybe I even passed Eric Rudolph on the street (me and thousands of others) as I wandered around.

It’s hard to believe the guy who saved so many lives — and was subsequently slimed by the government so that people would relax and party again — has died at 44.

The Atlanta Olympics are a very fond memory for me. Despite the media’s carping, they were great. I met people from all over the world, saw the women’s gymnastics team perform, watched Gwen Torrence and Gail Devers triumph in the beautiful Olympic Stadium. I remember Michael Johnson’s golden shoes and Carl Lewis’ last dance and getting angry because the TV kept cutting away from women’s soccer for more sob stories.

I love the olympics. Hate the terrible TV coverage, but love the games. I can’t wait until next year. I’ll probably watch on the internet. Hopefully, the Aussies will come through for us again and bust the Chinese swimming team for steroid use before the games begin.

One day, I want to see the olympics again. My only regret is that I didn’t spend more time and money there during the fantastic summer of ’96. Yeah, maybe I’m worshiping at the altar of crass commercialism. But I can worship where I want.

Go Ahead and Drive Drunk

The lesson from the NJ court? If you’re drunk, go ahead and drive home. Because if you try to sleep it off in your car, you’ll be convicted of DUI anyway.

I agree that the officer was right to investigate. But charging him with DUI instead of public drunkenness or vagrancy or something is excessive.

But then again, this is the least of our excesses in the war on DUI.

(Hat tip, the Agitator).

No Pay Raise

I’ve been having a nice debate in the comments on the impact of the Fair Tax. It’s helping me focus and refine my arguments, always a good thing.

I thought I’d put up two links to bolster my point that the Fair Tax supporters are being deceptive when they tell you:

a) Prices won’t rise under the Fair Tax
b) You will get your whole paycheck.

This is mathematically impossible. CNN talks about it here (search for Daniel Shaviro) and Boortz himself admits it here. Hopefully, he’ll put this front and center in his next Fair Tax book.

Nothing to See Here

Bainbridge on John Edwards’ hypocrisy, doing that oh-so-liberal thing of telling us all to conserve while he drive SUVs to his energy-gobbling and hideously ugly mansion.

I don’t expect more from Edwards. He’s an intellectual flyweight. But, jeez, do you think the people crowing about Senator Craig’s hypocritical bathroom adventures could spare a moment for Edwards?

More Fair Tax Nonsense

See if you can spot the flaw in Boortz’ argument that it will be easier to buy a house under the Fair Tax.

Memo to Neal: house are not purchased based on one year’s earnings. If my marginal tax rate is under 30%, then by the “logic” you’ve used, I’ll be worse off.

Of course, neither makes a difference. The problem with the Fair Tax is not that prices will go up. It’s the transition shock of some prices going up (because the employers can’t cut employee gross salaries down to the current net) and others not going up (because they can). The problem is the hideous black market that is almost guaranteed to appear — which is why Bartlett favors a VAT. The problem is that we won’t “get rid of the IRS” but simply infest it in every business and every home in America. The problem is that we’re going to have to create a massive agency to figure out the welfare prebate amounts for every person in the country (since only a batshit insane person would advocate equal “prebates” for people in New York City and New Braunfels).

So much easier to bash Bartlett’s Scientology straw man and fulminate over the pointless inclusive-exclusive argument than to address substantive complaints.

A Day Late and a Dollar Short

Not exactly news for Friday, but CNN has apprently discovered the Soviet Union’s long sordid history with nukes. Too bad the MSM wasn’t terribly interested in talking about the horrors of communism when it might have made a difference.

(And before you make a moral equivalence to our bombing of Japan, let me remind you that we were at war.)

All socialist systems make these sort of calculations. How much would it cost to evacuate these people against the benefits of seeing what radiation does to babies? We’ll be seeing a lot more of these drive-by incidents as our own system gets more socialized and people become assets of the state rather than individuals.

Blue Dog Night

Remember how the blue dog Democrats were supposed to be centrist? Eh, not so much.

Voting records from recent years confirm that the blue dogs are less than consistent spending hawks. The National Taxpayers Union did some checking and found that the blue dogs had an average fiscal score of 24 out of 100, earning them a grade of D as a group. It also found that last year the blue dogs sponsored $145 of new spending for every dollar of budget reductions, for a net spending increase per member of more than $140 billion.

There is one important caveat here — Bush is President. A lot of this might be pandering or going along with the party knowing it will be vetoed.

Still, it takes a certain reprehensible kind of spinelessness to go along with that nonsense. It’s like when Republicans pass laws they know the Supreme Court will bounce (McCain-Feingold for example). I understand the reasoning but it’s still playing Russain Roulette with the law. And sometimes, as in the case of McCain-Feingold, the gun goes off and we’re all screwed.

More Backward Looking

ESPN has their NFL preview up, complete with fan ranking of teams and players. Both rankings, and most of the predictions, would be wonderful and insightful — if they were for last year.

Here are ESPN’s power rankings. The only movement was at the bottom. Washington moved from #28 to #19, Miami moved from #26 to #20 for no apparent reason. The Lions moved up five spots in the hopes that the WR stockpiling will finally pay off. The only team that ESPN expects to do appreciably worse this year is the Falcons. Well, DUH! Actually, come to think of it, they might do better without the Vick distraction. Oh, wait, the Chief drop down since everyone is expecting Johnson’s knees to explode.

So what teams do I expect to move? I’d drag the Chargers, Ravens and Bears down a few points since I don’t expect them to be as lucky. Plus the Chargers have Norv Turner now. I’d move the Eagles up since McNabb is back, making them my #3 team. I’d move the Cowboys down since Romo will return to Earth and the Rams up because I don’t think Steven Jackson will. I’d rate the Jaguars way up, the Giants way down, leave the Dolphins in the cellar, move the Packers up. And I agree with them on the movements of the Chiefs, Falcons and Redskins.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Jacksonville will suck and maybe Turner will bring the Lombardi trophy to San Diego. But at least I’d be trying to be bold.

Predicting the Past

To pre-empt TMQ:

It happens every year. The feckless pre-season predictions come out. Over at CNNSI, Don Banks boldly predicts that teams will pretty much finish in the same order they did last year and ten of the twelve playoff teams will repeat. ESPN hasn’t had their predictionfest yet, but I’m sure we’ll see the same. It’s absurd of course. Only five 2005 playoffs teams made the playoffs in 2006. Only five 2004 playoff teams from 2004 made the dance in 2005. Only six from 2003 made it in 2004.

The combination of short season, high injury rates, salary cap and 3/8 of the teams making the playoffs means that there is a lot of turnover at the top. Only the real dynasties can be counted on year-to-year.

Well, I’ll go ahead and make my predictions right off the top of my head. No knowledge, no training camp video, I haven’t even watched a pre-season game. My preparation consists entirely of reading Pro Football Prospectus.

NFC East – Philly, Washington, Dallas, Giants
NFC North – Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit
NFC South – New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta
NFC West – St. Louis, Seattle, San Fran, Arizona

Playoffs Teams – Philly, Washington, Green Bay, Chicago, NO, St. Louis

AFC East – New England, New York, Miami, Buffalo
AFC North – Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
AFC South – Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Houston
AFC West – Denver, San Diego, KC, Oakland

Playoff Teams – New England, Cincy, Jacksonville, Indy, Denver, San Diego

Superbowl – Philly over Jacksonville

That’s only six teams I expect to repeat. Three of these — Philly, Indy and New England are dynastic. The other three – San Diego, Chicago and New Orleans – were so good last year, I can’t imagine they’d fall completely out of it this year. But they can always suprise. NO’s offense could fall on its face. Donovan McNabb could get hurt again. Lovie Smith’s magic may not work a third year in a row. I haven’t predicted a single division to finish in the same order it did last year.

To be honest, I don’t have faith in any of my picks. It’s the NFL, for Chrissake. Anything can happen. Do I look like an SMT? But let’s see if I’m any more full of crap than the people being paid to make predictions.