A Climate Summary
Spiegel has one of the fairest and most complete analyses of Climategate I’ve seen out there. It’s a long article but worth the read because it details exactly what has happened, what is going on and what the status of the science is.
As usual, I find myself between warring camps. I think AGW is real and a problem but I’m concerned about the quality of the science going into it and am extremely skeptical of the proposed solutions. I think much of the climate controversy of the last few months is overblown and over hyped by people who have a religious/political belief that AGW is a myth. At the same time, I think AGW supporters are far too glib in dismissing the controversy.
So whenever the subject comes out, I get bashed on one side by “It’s a conspiracy” bad skeptics and bashed on the other by “you’re a tool of industry” believers. But if I wanted everyone to agree with me, why would I bother with blogging?
Weekend Linkorama
Midweek Linkorama
All politics this week I’m afraid.
Moms Alive
Yet another subject for the We Hate It When Things Get Better file.
Whenever anyone tells me that things are getting worse in the world, that we’ve fallen away from some great glorious golden age, I have many responses. But one of those has to be “childbirth”. In the natural unsullied state, one in fifty women dies giving birth. And it’s not a fun way to go. Were it not for modern medicine, I might very well have lost both my wife and daughter that way.
Thanks to modern technology, that rate has plunged to less than one in ten thousand in the industrialized world. And rates are plunging in the undeveloped world.
But advocates for better maternity care are unhappy about this, or at least unhappy about letting people know about it. They fear that the issue will lose its urgency (which, if it’s getting better, it sort of should, no?)
Happy B-Day To McCormick
The observatory at my old graduate school stomping grounds turned 125 yesterday. The 26″ refractor is a fantastic telescope and I have many great memories of night spent up at McCormick.
Here’s to another 125 years!
Pixels
Trippy.
Monday Linkorama
Thursday Linkorama
Green Kids
In the middle of an article defending the child-free lifestyle, Lisa Hymas notes:
If you consider not just the carbon impact of your own kids but of your kids’ kids and so on, the numbers get even starker. According to a 2009 study in Global Environmental Change [PDF] that took into account the long-term impact of Americans’ descendants, each child adds an estimated 9,441 metric tons of CO2 to a parent’s carbon legacy—that’s about 5.7 times his or her direct lifetime emissions.
I don’t begrudge anyone the child-free lifestyle. I like the kid thing but it’s not for everyone.
But this particular child-free argument falls flat for me. I’ve pointed out before that we need future generations of smart people to solve our ecological problems. And smart people, while not guaranteed to have smart kids, are more likely to.
But what brought this post up was that ridiculously precise figure on how much CO2 your kids are going to produce. It’s utterly ridiculous to speculate on things that will not happen for many decades. If nuclear fusion becomes viable by 2050, the carbon footprint of my kids and grandkids will be far lower than mine. It’s the return of he Fallacy of the Unbroken Trend. Since carbon emissions per capita have followed trend X, we can extrapolate trend X a century into the future and draw conclusions appropriately.
Garbage.
Weekend Linkorama
Debunking Cracked
Cracked.com is one of my favorite websites. But today they ran an article on how a biotech company almost killed the world.
I have to assume that this article is a joke, not a serious article. Because if it is serious, it’s incredibly sloppy and poorly researched.
The claim is that scientists tried to modify Klebsiella planticola, a ubiquitous plant bacteria, to produce alcohol when it broke down plants. They were about to release this bacterium into the world when a researcher found out it killed plants. Had it been released, all the plants in the world would have died.
Maybe this story is accurate but it set off my bullshit antennae something fierce.
1) Lack of specifics. We’re told a “European biotech” company was doing this. No name is given; no country is given. This is especially strange given European attitudes toward GM crops. Only vague references are given to the study that saved us all. Someone in the comments pointed me to the PDF. It’s very mild compared to the article’s claims. Cracked tends to exaggerate for humorous effect, but this is a bit far even for them.
2) Google “Klebsiella planticola”. The only thing you will find are fringe anti-GM sites repeating this story. You will also occasionally find claims that the “world will die” study was withdrawn or debunked. The fringe anti-GM sites make me think the article is serious, not satire.
3) I found the website of Dr. Ingham, who is supposed to have saved us. While she has several papers in preparation on Klebsiella planticola on her CV, her bio suspiciously leaves out the part where she saved the world.
4) If this story were real, anti-GM organizations like Greenpeace would be flogging it constantly. Every time someone so much as moved a corn starch gene, we’d hear that “we don’t another Klebsiella planticola”. It would be the Chernobyl or Three Mile Island of genetic engineering.
5) The author, in responding to comments, states that this was ready for “worldwide release”. Given that we can’t persuade countries to accept GM crops that have proven to be safe, this sounds dubious.
I checked out the author’s website for his book. It’s about 20 ways the world could end. One thing he cites is HiPER, a nuclear fusion experiment that could “consume us all in a fiery fusion reaction”, which is laughable.
Again, I have to assume this article, and the book, are a joke. This guy is not a scientist, but a humor writer. But if it is a joke, it’s a poorly disguised one.
Sometimes I Like Him
The non-stop poll watching in Washington drives me nuts. We are not a democracy; we are a constitutional republic. The beauty of our Republic is not that the people get what they want; indeed the beauty is that sometimes they don’t get what they want. The beauty is in the accountability that a republic creates. The only time polls matter is in November.
That having been said, we will be watching this, Mr. President. And if healthcare doesn’t deliver what was promised — and I don’t think it will — it won’t be forgotten.