Bonds on Bonds

Congratulations to Bonds on passing Henry Aaron. And good on the fans of San Diego for not getting swallowed in the controversy. And shame on the commissioner for putting his hands in his pockets and issuing a press release that focused on steroids. Selig needs to make up his mind – is the steroid testing working or not?

The press should be ashamed of themselves too. ESPN is running an article about how Bonds’ teammates are alleging steroid use (actually, they’ve now changed it to “teammate” singular since it’s only one guy).

They guy in question is Brian Johnson, who was a teammate of Bonds’ in 1997-1998. Of course, “Game of Shadows” claims Bonds started using steroids in 1999. And Johnson doesn’t say anything substantive, just makes vauge references to “cloak-and-dagger” societies.

But since he was a teammate of Bonds and says something about steroids, we can conclude that Bonds’ teammates are accusing him of steroid use.

No matter what, Bonds is one of the greatest players in baseball history and it’s been a privelege to wach him. He is now the first man to hold the single-season and career homerun mark since Babe Ruth. I have no idea what kind of person he is. And I’m unwilling to judge him based on the word of a bunch of SMTs.

In the meantime, Diamond Mind does a fascinating projection of what Aaron would have done today and conclude he would have hit about 11 more homers. Money quote:

Perhaps the most significant feature of these results is that, halfway into his “sim” career, Aaron was 50 home runs behind his actual career pace. The reason is that the 1950s, when Aaron began his career, actually were more offensively-oriented than the 1980s, when Bonds began playing. Aaron begins making up the home run difference when his seasons from the 1960s, at which time pitching was more dominant, are shifted to the homer-happy 1990s. He finally passes his actual career total when his twilight 1970s seasons are shifted to the new millennium.

Aaron’s best real-life single-season HR total was 47 in 1971, which was replayed as 2001 in our simulations. It so happens that 2001 also was the season when Bonds broke the single-season record with 73 homers.

Of course, they don’t realize that Bonds is evil and so anything they say is going to be denigrate and ignored. Why if Aaron played today, he’d have hit 2000 home runs!

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