Rearranging

Last week, it was announced that a new analysis of temperature data showed the hotest year in history was 1934. Limbaugh, Boortz and others have been using this to say, “global warming is a myth!” because we all know that something supported by hundred of pieces of evidence is wrong whenever one piece of evidence falls away.

The Bad Astronomer take this nonsense apart:

For the 1994 to 2006 bin I get a deviation of +0.57. The average temperature in the second bump is 0.1 degrees higher than the first. In other words, it was warmer on average in the last 13 years than any time in recorded history.

Look again at the numbers. If you look at the top ten years, even with the new method, only the year of 2001 goes away (replaced with 1939, see chart below). All the other years are fairly stable, though the numbers themselves have changed. In other words, old method or new, more record years have happened in the last decade or so of the record keeping than you’d expect.

There’s still no explanation as to why it was so hot in the 1930’s. I suspect it sunlight-blocking industrial pollutants played a role. in droping the temp.

But it’s becoming clear that many who discuss global warming — on either side — have no idea how science works. Scientific knowledge is formed from all the facts, not carefully selected ones. A few planets warming does not prove the sun created global warming. A minor revision of temperature scales does not disprove global warming. A single bad hurricane does not prove it either.

You have to take into account all the data.

Update: TNR really takes the “conservatives” to task . Among other things, the 1930’s were local warming in the United States, not global warming. And the models aren’t constructed using surface temperatures.

The global warming debunkers are increasingly reminding me of the creation scientists — in fact, they are much the same people. They will happily use one piece of evidence to debunk conclusions based on thousands of pieces of evidence. Their argument range from misunderstandings (“the temperatures were revised”) to scientifically unsounds theories (“it’s the Sun!”) to outright brassbound lies (“it’s all commies!”).

Mind you, I’m not with the global warming crowd either, who are irresponsibly predicting disaster, jumping on every little factoid as though it proves global warming, shamefully exploiting unrlated tragedies for political gains and embracing stupid collectivist solutions.

But at least the science is on their side.