It’s not that there’s no non-political stuff to talk about; it’s that I get so back-logged with the political side.
All posts by Mike
Unintended Consequences
Why am I a libertarian? This is why:
This is not unusual, this is normal. Without government, bad ideas tend to eat themselves. With government, they get the power of politics behind them and become almost impossible to reverse or even stop.
The TV Trope
Cracked has an article today on how TV affects people’s minds. It is a perfect illustration of the the problems I have with much of the social “sciences”.
To be brief: they look at six effects that TV supposedly has on our brains. Some of them seems reasonable — such as people forming emotional connections to TV characters or dreaming in black and white. But several are, at best, problematic and, at worst, bullshit.
For example, they claim that watching TV at an early age (2-5 years) makes kids more likely to be obese, have social problems and fall behind at school. France has used this kind of research to ban shows targeted at children under three, since the Europeans are eager to embrace every piece of panicky social science bullshit (see bans on spanking).
But at no point do they demonstrate anything beyond a correlation. Do children struggle in school or have weight problems because they watch TV? Or do the factors that cause the former also cause the latter? You can’t just show a link and then claim a causative link. That’s not how science works.
I also doubt the statistics behind this. The big longitudinal study looked at 1300 canadian children. It claims to be able to correct for all manner of social factors, such as wealth and education and then be able to measure these effects to a precision of better than 6%. Think about that. They’re claiming they can measure the effect of TV on math scores, correcting for social factors, to a precision about 25 kids, if we assume a three sigma level of significance. Really?
Similar things could be said about the claim that television lowers our attention span or makes you violent. The latter, which I’ve blogged on before, is the source of much public policy. But I have yet to see anyone really conclusively demonstrate a causative link. Do children engage in violence because they watch violent TV? Or do the thing that make children violent also make them enjoy pretend entertainment violence? Considering that violent entertainment has gone up even as real-life violence in our society has plunged, I’m inclined to believe the latter. A century ago, we didn’t have nearly as much violent entertainment, but it was not unusual for men my age to be in frequent fist fights. Now, my DVD collection has more violence than World War II but I haven’t thrown a fist in anger since elementary school.
These TV studies illustrate the general problem I have with the social sciences. They assume that human beings are empty vessels waiting to be filled by things that “society” imposes upon us. We have no intrinsic traits, no vices or virtues of our own. We are simply the result of all the societal programming we have endured. We engage in violence not because of our genes or our character or our upbringing but because of television. We have a short attention spa not because humans, in general, have short attention spans, but because of TV.
OK, I’m exaggerating. Most social scientists would say these things are not deterministic but do have an effect on us, changing the shape of our mental wave function. (Actually they wouldn’t say it like that since they flunked out of Physics 101; but I would). But the fact remains that there is an intrinsic assumption underlying their claims — that we are made violent or stupid or lazy by certain social stimuli, not that we seek out certain social stimuli because we are violent or stupid or lazy.
And that just ain’t science. You have to prove things, not assume then.
(I’m also ignoring the media’s role in this. Scientists who are more cautious in their claims tend not to get hysterical media coverage. And the media often exaggerate or misrepresent the claims a scientists makes — PhD comics has a wonderful strip on this.)
Friday Linkorama
Non-political links:
Political Links:
Bush v. Gore Reloaded
Hard to believe it’s been ten years since one of most contentious Supreme Court decisions in recent memory.
There are two issues wrapped up in Bush v. Gore, of course. The first concerns the election itself. That’s not a subject I really feel like re-opening, given all the Michael Moore-esque bullshit out there. I don’t think either side covered themselves with glory but there was something particularly repellent about the Gore team’s tactics — loudly proclaiming themselves as the defenders of democracy while trying just as many sneaky tricks as the Bush team did. Say what you about Republicans, at least they don’t pretend to be noble.
Well, at least they didn’t used to.
The other issue is the SCOTUS decision itself, of course. It’s the ten year anniversary, so let the bullshit begin:
Momentous Supreme Court cases tend to move quickly into the slipstream of the Court’s history. In the first ten years after Brown v. Board of Education, the 1954 decision that ended the doctrine of separate but equal in public education, the Justices cited the case more than twenty-five times. In the ten years after Roe v. Wade, the abortion-rights decision of 1973, there were more than sixty-five references to that landmark. This month marks ten years since the Court, by a vote of five-to-four, terminated the election of 2000 and delivered the Presidency to George W. Bush. Over that decade, the Justices have provided a verdict of sorts on Bush v. Gore by the number of times they have cited it: zero.
Toobin — that’s the writer of this piece of crap — goes on to argue that this means that Bush v. Gore was bad precedent. That’s as maybe but this argument doesn’t support his conclusion. SCOTUS decision on abortion and segregation affected people’s everyday lives. There were therefore hosts of cases that needed Brown or Roe clarified and applied. The only thing that would need Bush v. Gore as a precedent would be another national election. Razor-close national elections are rare. In fact, the last one I can remember that might have gone to SCOTUS was Coleman v. Franken. Coleman abandoned that case before it got that far.
Toobin is also full of crap because Bush vs. Gore has been cited by lower courts, including the 9th Circus.
The appropriate way to analyze the legal impact of Bush v. Gore would be to see how many cases on federal or state election law have come before the Court and how many could have cited Bush v. Gore but didn’t? Toobin doesn’t answer that because he’s not interested in the impact of Bush v. Gore; he’s interested in slamming it.
It gets better:
The Supreme Court stepped into the case even though the Florida Supreme Court had been interpreting Florida law; the majority found a violation of the rights of George W. Bush, a white man, to equal protection when these same Justices were becoming ever more stingy in finding violations of the rights of African-Americans; and the Court stopped the recount even before it was completed, and before the Florida courts had a chance to iron out any problems—a classic example of judicial activism, not judicial restraint, by the majority.
The first part of this is vile poppycock. The Supreme Court applied the equal protection clause not because George W. Bush’s rights were violated. They applied it — appropriately in my view — because Florida did not have a uniform standard for counting hanging chads and other uncounted votes (that tends to happen when you’re making up the rules as you go). This set up a situation where a vote that was not counted in one county could be counted in another. It’s as if one county closed its polling office early (or maybe an entire panhandle). Indeed, it wasn’t clear that some counties would do the recounts at all. (This being of course what the Noble and Wise Gore team wanted — so that recounts would go on only in Democrat-controlled counties).
Moreover, that decision was 7-2, not 5-4. Frankly, I don’t know what Ginsberg and Stevens were smoking that day since it should have been 9-0.
The controversial 5-4 decision was to stop the recount completely. Now that one was a debatable decision. I think the Florida State Supreme Court was wrong to order the recount. The best way to hold an election is to set the rules in advance, follow those rules and then end it. The Florida Court was basically making the rules up as it went and along highly partisan lines.
However, as Toobin points out — correctly, even — this was judicial activism. The Constitution is quite clear that each state sets its own election rules — fairly or unfairly. Even if the Florida Court was screwing the law, one could argue that it was their law to screw.
So it’s perfectly reasonable to argue that the Court should have just insisted on a uniform recount standard and let the recount proceed. I might disagree with that, but it’s a legitimate point of view. But to argue that the Court should have let the unequal standards slide is ridiculous. And to argue that the Court made the decision because Bush was white is obscene.
Wednesday Linkorama
Non-Political Links:
Political Links:
Bad Coaching Watch
Ugh. Okie State had a chance to beat Oklahoma tonight and blew it with some bad decisions. First, they scored to draw within two points. Then, with under four minutes left and their defense on fumes, in a situation where Oklahoma only needed a few first downs, they kick deep instead of using an onside kick. Why?
They then played such shitty coverage on 3rd and long — with no deep coverage — that they gave up an 86 yard touchdown pass. Why was there no deep coverage on 3rd and 14? Who knows.
A kickoff return TD puts them back in it with 2:51 to play. Again, the kick booms deep in a situation where Oklahoma needs only a few first downs to ice the game. Why not onside kick here? If Oklahoma gets it, you’re no worse off. You still need to make a stop to get a chance. To my mind, an onside kick gives you two shots to get a potential game-winning drive: one with the onside kick and one with the defense. Whether you stop Oklahoma at the 20 or the 50 really doesn’t matter. Field position is not the important factor here — time is.
Then there’s another coverage breakdown and no deep man and Oklahoma gets a 77-yard touchdown. Because, apparently, it never occurred to Okie State that Oklahoma might play fake their exhausted defense in an obvious clock-grinding situation.
This is followed by a slow drive that gobbles up two minutes and gets a field goal. Now, with no choice, Gundy decides to try an onside kick. Which fails, of course, since Oklahoma knows its coming.
I don’t mean to pick on Gundy with regard to the onside kicks since most coaches would do the same thing. TMQ always goes on about how coaches eschew the onside kick until it makes no difference. This is to avoid criticism for “unconventional” decisions. And indeed, even the announcers didn’t criticize the decision.
But the refusal of teams to onside kick until the very last minute hurts their chances of winning. You will rarely see a better illustration of this than tonight’s game, which Okie State could have won with a bit more boldness.
Thanksgiving Linkorama
Non-political links:
Political Links:
Movie Cliches
I don’t think I ever posted this, did I? Spurred by Cracked’s attack on injury cliches, I present a list of movie cliches I once sent to Roger Ebert for inclusion in his Little Movie Glossary (none have shown up; possibly because I accidentally abbreviated one that could be mistaken for a mis-spelled bad word and therefore tripped a spam filter). Several of these have appeared in cracked and on tvtropes.com. But I thunk of ’em independently.
Monday Linkorama
Non-political Links:
Political Links:
Thursday Linkorama
Non-political links:
Political Links:
Defending Bush
It’s hard to defend George W. Bush this week, given his new memoir. But I feel I must.
I’ve slowly moved to a neutral position on the death penalty. I’m not against it but I think applying it should require an extreme burden of proof. This is, to me, a conservative view. I’m simply reluctant to trust the government with the power of life and death. And that reluctance grows stronger every time a story like this surfaces:
Claude Jones always claimed that he wasn’t the man who walked into an East Texas liquor store in 1989 and shot the owner. He professed his innocence right up until the moment he was strapped to a gurney in the Texas execution chamber and put to death on Dec. 7, 2000. His murder conviction was based on a single piece of forensic evidence recovered from the crime scene—a strand of hair—that prosecutors claimed belonged to Jones.
But DNA tests completed this week at the request of the Observer and the New York-based Innocence Project show the hair didn’t belong to Jones after all. The day before his death in December 2000, Jones asked for a stay of execution so the strand of hair could be submitted for DNA testing. He was denied by then-Gov. George W. Bush.
A decade later, the results of DNA testing not only undermine the evidence that convicted Jones, but raise the possibility that Texas executed an innocent man. The DNA tests—conducted by Mitotyping Technologies, a private lab in State College, Pa., and first reported by the Observer on Thursday—show the hair belonged to the victim of the shooting, Allen Hilzendager, the 44-year-old owner of the liquor store.
Because the DNA testing doesn’t implicate another shooter, the results don’t prove Jones’ innocence. But the hair was the only piece of evidence that placed Jones at the crime scene. So while the results don’t exonerate him, they raise serious doubts about his guilt
A lot of people are bashing Bush over this, since the man was executed while Bush was governor. This is unfair. First, as we noted about a million times during the 2000 election, the governor of Texas does not have the power to stop executions, merely delay them by thirty days. More important, the Bush people were never notified that a DNA test had been requested. If they had, Bush would almost certainlyhave delayed the execution. He did this in case of Ricky McGinn, a man who raped and beat to death his 12-year-old step-daughter but requested a DNA test before execution. In that case, of course, the DNA proved the fucker’s guilt and he was executed.
So, yes, this story can be used to criticize the death penalty and especially the death penalty in Texas, where a staggering fraction of the defense attorneys in capital cases are incompetent. But people using this as another opportunity for Bush-bashing need to get a grip. This wasn’t his fault.
All Politics Linkorama
All political links today, I’m afraid:
Politics and TV
I have a problem with this story that supposedly shows what Republicans and Democrats like on TV. The numbers don’t work out. On each side, a parenthesis supposedly shows how the other side ranks it. But the numbers don’t match.
I would not be surprised to turn out that this list is shoddy, if not completely fictitious.
Update: I also call BS on the supposed diary of a TSA employee. It plays too much to my biases.