All posts by Mike

Monday All Politics Linkorama

It’s not that there’s no non-political stuff to talk about; it’s that I get so back-logged with the political side.

  • The Nanny State strikes again.
  • Ah, Global Warming bad skepticism. Repeating elided quotes from Phil Jones shown long ago to be incorrect? Check. Quoting temperature records incorrectly? Check. Repeating long-debunked claims about recent cooling? Check. It’s like a broken record with these guys. No matter how often their talking points are debunked, they keep repeating them. Meanwhile, the Earth keeps warming.
  • The best weapon against radicalism? American TV. Neal Stephenson called this one.
  • Shit like this is why I sometimes want to throw up my hands and get my own survival bunker. Democrats have been bashing Republicans for not responding to a 9/11 First Responders bill. Turn out, it’s a dreadfully written bill. But we must do something!
  • Neal Boortz is really hopelessly insane these days. Now he’s going through the NSF budget, identifying grants that sounds ridiculous to him and slagging them. Never mind if it’s viable peer-reviewed research that has to perform to sustain funding. Dinosaur fossils! Apparently, scientists are now part of the “looter class”.
  • This is what I fear Tea Party candidates will do to the nation. With Michelle Bachmann Overdrive already backing down on the earmarks pledge and a budget-busting $900 billion Stimulus IV going into place, it’s already happening at the national level.
  • I’m with TNC. How can you not be cynical about politics when Peter Orzag leaves the White House and goes straight into an eight figure job with one of the companies he was regulating?
  • Stephen Breyer reminds me of Noam Chomsky. He sounds brilliant when you listen to him, but what he says is so totally wrong it beggars belief.
  • The TV Trope

    Cracked has an article today on how TV affects people’s minds. It is a perfect illustration of the the problems I have with much of the social “sciences”.

    To be brief: they look at six effects that TV supposedly has on our brains. Some of them seems reasonable — such as people forming emotional connections to TV characters or dreaming in black and white. But several are, at best, problematic and, at worst, bullshit.

    For example, they claim that watching TV at an early age (2-5 years) makes kids more likely to be obese, have social problems and fall behind at school. France has used this kind of research to ban shows targeted at children under three, since the Europeans are eager to embrace every piece of panicky social science bullshit (see bans on spanking).

    But at no point do they demonstrate anything beyond a correlation. Do children struggle in school or have weight problems because they watch TV? Or do the factors that cause the former also cause the latter? You can’t just show a link and then claim a causative link. That’s not how science works.

    I also doubt the statistics behind this. The big longitudinal study looked at 1300 canadian children. It claims to be able to correct for all manner of social factors, such as wealth and education and then be able to measure these effects to a precision of better than 6%. Think about that. They’re claiming they can measure the effect of TV on math scores, correcting for social factors, to a precision about 25 kids, if we assume a three sigma level of significance. Really?

    Similar things could be said about the claim that television lowers our attention span or makes you violent. The latter, which I’ve blogged on before, is the source of much public policy. But I have yet to see anyone really conclusively demonstrate a causative link. Do children engage in violence because they watch violent TV? Or do the thing that make children violent also make them enjoy pretend entertainment violence? Considering that violent entertainment has gone up even as real-life violence in our society has plunged, I’m inclined to believe the latter. A century ago, we didn’t have nearly as much violent entertainment, but it was not unusual for men my age to be in frequent fist fights. Now, my DVD collection has more violence than World War II but I haven’t thrown a fist in anger since elementary school.

    These TV studies illustrate the general problem I have with the social sciences. They assume that human beings are empty vessels waiting to be filled by things that “society” imposes upon us. We have no intrinsic traits, no vices or virtues of our own. We are simply the result of all the societal programming we have endured. We engage in violence not because of our genes or our character or our upbringing but because of television. We have a short attention spa not because humans, in general, have short attention spans, but because of TV.

    OK, I’m exaggerating. Most social scientists would say these things are not deterministic but do have an effect on us, changing the shape of our mental wave function. (Actually they wouldn’t say it like that since they flunked out of Physics 101; but I would). But the fact remains that there is an intrinsic assumption underlying their claims — that we are made violent or stupid or lazy by certain social stimuli, not that we seek out certain social stimuli because we are violent or stupid or lazy.

    And that just ain’t science. You have to prove things, not assume then.

    (I’m also ignoring the media’s role in this. Scientists who are more cautious in their claims tend not to get hysterical media coverage. And the media often exaggerate or misrepresent the claims a scientists makes — PhD comics has a wonderful strip on this.)

    Friday Linkorama

    Non-political links:

  • I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: ancient people were much more clever than they are given credit for. This is why “aliens built the pyramids” and similar conspiracy theories enrage me. It’s insulting to the clever people who lived in the past and arrogant by the people who live in the present.
  • This is a joke. Right? Right?!
  • Political Links:

  • Dissecting the lies about Wikileaks.
  • Just some facts about how effective civilian trials of terrorists are.
  • You’re Full of It Watch: Neal Boortz. In one blog post, he rants that the deficit commission does not cut spending and then blasts them for controlling Medicare spending, even claiming Palin’s “death panels” comments is now justified.
  • Yet more terrible decisions from CSPIA.
  • And again, I ask — what is the use of Democrats if they are going to be worse than Republicans on criminal justice issues.
  • Bush v. Gore Reloaded

    Hard to believe it’s been ten years since one of most contentious Supreme Court decisions in recent memory.

    There are two issues wrapped up in Bush v. Gore, of course. The first concerns the election itself. That’s not a subject I really feel like re-opening, given all the Michael Moore-esque bullshit out there. I don’t think either side covered themselves with glory but there was something particularly repellent about the Gore team’s tactics — loudly proclaiming themselves as the defenders of democracy while trying just as many sneaky tricks as the Bush team did. Say what you about Republicans, at least they don’t pretend to be noble.

    Well, at least they didn’t used to.

    The other issue is the SCOTUS decision itself, of course. It’s the ten year anniversary, so let the bullshit begin:

    Momentous Supreme Court cases tend to move quickly into the slipstream of the Court’s history. In the first ten years after Brown v. Board of Education, the 1954 decision that ended the doctrine of separate but equal in public education, the Justices cited the case more than twenty-five times. In the ten years after Roe v. Wade, the abortion-rights decision of 1973, there were more than sixty-five references to that landmark. This month marks ten years since the Court, by a vote of five-to-four, terminated the election of 2000 and delivered the Presidency to George W. Bush. Over that decade, the Justices have provided a verdict of sorts on Bush v. Gore by the number of times they have cited it: zero.

    Toobin — that’s the writer of this piece of crap — goes on to argue that this means that Bush v. Gore was bad precedent. That’s as maybe but this argument doesn’t support his conclusion. SCOTUS decision on abortion and segregation affected people’s everyday lives. There were therefore hosts of cases that needed Brown or Roe clarified and applied. The only thing that would need Bush v. Gore as a precedent would be another national election. Razor-close national elections are rare. In fact, the last one I can remember that might have gone to SCOTUS was Coleman v. Franken. Coleman abandoned that case before it got that far.

    Toobin is also full of crap because Bush vs. Gore has been cited by lower courts, including the 9th Circus.

    The appropriate way to analyze the legal impact of Bush v. Gore would be to see how many cases on federal or state election law have come before the Court and how many could have cited Bush v. Gore but didn’t? Toobin doesn’t answer that because he’s not interested in the impact of Bush v. Gore; he’s interested in slamming it.

    It gets better:

    The Supreme Court stepped into the case even though the Florida Supreme Court had been interpreting Florida law; the majority found a violation of the rights of George W. Bush, a white man, to equal protection when these same Justices were becoming ever more stingy in finding violations of the rights of African-Americans; and the Court stopped the recount even before it was completed, and before the Florida courts had a chance to iron out any problems—a classic example of judicial activism, not judicial restraint, by the majority.

    The first part of this is vile poppycock. The Supreme Court applied the equal protection clause not because George W. Bush’s rights were violated. They applied it — appropriately in my view — because Florida did not have a uniform standard for counting hanging chads and other uncounted votes (that tends to happen when you’re making up the rules as you go). This set up a situation where a vote that was not counted in one county could be counted in another. It’s as if one county closed its polling office early (or maybe an entire panhandle). Indeed, it wasn’t clear that some counties would do the recounts at all. (This being of course what the Noble and Wise Gore team wanted — so that recounts would go on only in Democrat-controlled counties).

    Moreover, that decision was 7-2, not 5-4. Frankly, I don’t know what Ginsberg and Stevens were smoking that day since it should have been 9-0.

    The controversial 5-4 decision was to stop the recount completely. Now that one was a debatable decision. I think the Florida State Supreme Court was wrong to order the recount. The best way to hold an election is to set the rules in advance, follow those rules and then end it. The Florida Court was basically making the rules up as it went and along highly partisan lines.

    However, as Toobin points out — correctly, even — this was judicial activism. The Constitution is quite clear that each state sets its own election rules — fairly or unfairly. Even if the Florida Court was screwing the law, one could argue that it was their law to screw.

    So it’s perfectly reasonable to argue that the Court should have just insisted on a uniform recount standard and let the recount proceed. I might disagree with that, but it’s a legitimate point of view. But to argue that the Court should have let the unequal standards slide is ridiculous. And to argue that the Court made the decision because Bush was white is obscene.

    Wednesday Linkorama

    Non-Political Links:

  • Awesomeness
  • McDonald’s burgers don’t rot? Well, neither do anyone else’s. I suspect the difference in rotting has to do with the cheese and the bun, both of which McDonald’s makes sure have no bacterial contamination.
  • More of this, please: scientists talk evolution. And they deconstruct intelligent design here.
  • Political Links:

  • Radley Balko shows just how shoddy the Nation’s journalism is when it comes to bashing libertarians.
  • This is heresy in some of the conservative circles I run in, but the Wikileaks appears to show an Obama Administration that is good at foreign policy. This doesn’t fit the Right Wing meme that Obama is a bumbling imbecile who hates America, so it’s being ignored. I also suspect they wouldn’t like the specifics, which involve negotiation, deal-making, listening — you know, policy — instead of high horse unqualified demands being issued to lesser nations. How far the GOP has fallen from the days of Reagan and Bush I.
  • You’re Full of It Watch: Neal Boortz, continuing his “global warming is a myth” religion, boasts that no hurricanes hit the US this year. A simple Google search would have told him that this was an above-average season and in line with predictions. It’s just that other countries got walloped. I think there is a point that hurricane season prediction is very uncertain. But his main point is just to cover his eyes. Even his readers called him out on this one.
  • Irony, thy name is healthcare reform.
  • Bad Coaching Watch

    Ugh. Okie State had a chance to beat Oklahoma tonight and blew it with some bad decisions. First, they scored to draw within two points. Then, with under four minutes left and their defense on fumes, in a situation where Oklahoma only needed a few first downs, they kick deep instead of using an onside kick. Why?

    They then played such shitty coverage on 3rd and long — with no deep coverage — that they gave up an 86 yard touchdown pass. Why was there no deep coverage on 3rd and 14? Who knows.

    A kickoff return TD puts them back in it with 2:51 to play. Again, the kick booms deep in a situation where Oklahoma needs only a few first downs to ice the game. Why not onside kick here? If Oklahoma gets it, you’re no worse off. You still need to make a stop to get a chance. To my mind, an onside kick gives you two shots to get a potential game-winning drive: one with the onside kick and one with the defense. Whether you stop Oklahoma at the 20 or the 50 really doesn’t matter. Field position is not the important factor here — time is.

    Then there’s another coverage breakdown and no deep man and Oklahoma gets a 77-yard touchdown. Because, apparently, it never occurred to Okie State that Oklahoma might play fake their exhausted defense in an obvious clock-grinding situation.

    This is followed by a slow drive that gobbles up two minutes and gets a field goal. Now, with no choice, Gundy decides to try an onside kick. Which fails, of course, since Oklahoma knows its coming.

    I don’t mean to pick on Gundy with regard to the onside kicks since most coaches would do the same thing. TMQ always goes on about how coaches eschew the onside kick until it makes no difference. This is to avoid criticism for “unconventional” decisions. And indeed, even the announcers didn’t criticize the decision.

    But the refusal of teams to onside kick until the very last minute hurts their chances of winning. You will rarely see a better illustration of this than tonight’s game, which Okie State could have won with a bit more boldness.

    Thanksgiving Linkorama

    Non-political links:

  • Jonah Lehrer on why expertise doesn’t translate well.
  • London.
  • Political Links:

  • Megan McArdle talks about Ireland.
  • El Paso, sisters city of the most violent city in Mexico, is the safest city in America. The reason? El Paso’s cops aren’t wholly-owned subsidiaries of the drug cartels.
  • Why the UN is a joke. A dangerous joke.
  • If I were liberal, I’d probably love Glenn Greenwald. Here he defends a libertarian from a nasty smear job.
  • Since I so rarely say it –or have a reason to — good for Obama.
  • HuffPo remain a bastion of pseudo-medical Nanny State lunacy.
  • How the government drives up the cost of healthcare.
  • Movie Cliches

    I don’t think I ever posted this, did I? Spurred by Cracked’s attack on injury cliches, I present a list of movie cliches I once sent to Roger Ebert for inclusion in his Little Movie Glossary (none have shown up; possibly because I accidentally abbreviated one that could be mistaken for a mis-spelled bad word and therefore tripped a spam filter). Several of these have appeared in cracked and on tvtropes.com. But I thunk of ’em independently.

    Continue reading Movie Cliches

    Monday Linkorama

    Non-political Links:

  • It pains me to hear about the ridiculous excesses people go to when pampering their pets. I love animals and certainly think people should be allowed to do what they want their money. But couldn’t we spend some of that excess on humans? Thinking about lonely people doting on pets in place of their fellow people just fills me with a tremendous and deep sadness.
  • Political Links:

  • The Problem of Government: Exhibit 6394C: a bill that supposedly creates paycheck fairness creates a legal nightmare.
  • There are some Republicans who scare me.
  • And sometimes the Religious Right scares me: here, one of them argues that we are “feminizing” the Medal of Honor by not giving it to people who perform aggressive acts in war (and making various irrelevant biblical references). Sullivan’s readers own him here, pointing out we have given awards for aggressive acts of valor. But he refuses to listen, doubling down on his bullshit.
  • You’re Full of It Watch: Dana Milibank. I agree that the opposition to New START is stupid. But the opposition to the nudie scanners and groping is not, as I’ve been blogging heavily on the other site. The ACLU is opposed to them. And to call out Ron Paul is incredibly dumb and ignorant; he has always been a civil libertarian and was vehemently opposed to Bush’s anti-terror policies as well.
  • We must be getting close to legalizing pot; the tactics of the pot-grabbers are getting more and more hysterical.
  • There’s not much hope of balancing the budget when either party insists on massive cash giveaways.
  • Thursday Linkorama

    Non-political links:

  • Catalog Living is sometimes blah and sometimes hilarious.
  • Political Links:

  • I’m not about to defend George Soros. But Glenn Beck’s jihad seems a bit much.
  • Again, I’m glad I don’t live in California. They just re-elected one of the governors who screwed the pooch in the first place.
  • You have to wonder if the people who screamed so loudly when Bush rewrote reports for his political purposes will scream when Obama does the same.
  • What are we putting X-ray backscatter devices in airports despite the minimal benefit and stuff opposition? Follow the money.
  • Obama’s DEA: just as full of shit as Bush’s. Notice also the craven reason given for senators not pushing her — because Prop 19 lost. What the fuck happened to leadership?
  • Slimeball Communist Danny Ortega is illegally running for President again and invading a peaceful country to drum up support. Let’s see if this gets as much attention as the Honduran “coup”. And never forget that, during the 80’s, Ortega was worshipped by many Letists (before he lost the first open election in his country and pillaged the treasury on the way out).
  • Defending Bush

    It’s hard to defend George W. Bush this week, given his new memoir. But I feel I must.

    I’ve slowly moved to a neutral position on the death penalty. I’m not against it but I think applying it should require an extreme burden of proof. This is, to me, a conservative view. I’m simply reluctant to trust the government with the power of life and death. And that reluctance grows stronger every time a story like this surfaces:

    Claude Jones always claimed that he wasn’t the man who walked into an East Texas liquor store in 1989 and shot the owner. He professed his innocence right up until the moment he was strapped to a gurney in the Texas execution chamber and put to death on Dec. 7, 2000. His murder conviction was based on a single piece of forensic evidence recovered from the crime scene—a strand of hair—that prosecutors claimed belonged to Jones.

    But DNA tests completed this week at the request of the Observer and the New York-based Innocence Project show the hair didn’t belong to Jones after all. The day before his death in December 2000, Jones asked for a stay of execution so the strand of hair could be submitted for DNA testing. He was denied by then-Gov. George W. Bush.

    A decade later, the results of DNA testing not only undermine the evidence that convicted Jones, but raise the possibility that Texas executed an innocent man. The DNA tests—conducted by Mitotyping Technologies, a private lab in State College, Pa., and first reported by the Observer on Thursday—show the hair belonged to the victim of the shooting, Allen Hilzendager, the 44-year-old owner of the liquor store.

    Because the DNA testing doesn’t implicate another shooter, the results don’t prove Jones’ innocence. But the hair was the only piece of evidence that placed Jones at the crime scene. So while the results don’t exonerate him, they raise serious doubts about his guilt

    A lot of people are bashing Bush over this, since the man was executed while Bush was governor. This is unfair. First, as we noted about a million times during the 2000 election, the governor of Texas does not have the power to stop executions, merely delay them by thirty days. More important, the Bush people were never notified that a DNA test had been requested. If they had, Bush would almost certainlyhave delayed the execution. He did this in case of Ricky McGinn, a man who raped and beat to death his 12-year-old step-daughter but requested a DNA test before execution. In that case, of course, the DNA proved the fucker’s guilt and he was executed.

    So, yes, this story can be used to criticize the death penalty and especially the death penalty in Texas, where a staggering fraction of the defense attorneys in capital cases are incompetent. But people using this as another opportunity for Bush-bashing need to get a grip. This wasn’t his fault.

    All Politics Linkorama

    All political links today, I’m afraid:

  • More on why our evil drug companies aren’t so evil.
  • I have to agree with Saletan. The Democrats won big over the last two years, getting huge pieces of legislation passed. Elections are temporary; big government programs are forever. By the same token, I think the GOP really lost in 2000. They won an election but completely screwed the pooch on policy. Unfortunately, much of the current GOP leadership can’t tell the difference.
  • Michael Bloomberg: soup nazi.
  • I really don’t know what to make of payday lending. The arguments against are obvious. But Reason point out that banning them may simply be making things worse.
  • This sort of thing, in which a reporter waxes rhapsodic about how romantic the Communists are, drives me nuts.
  • Torture update: the Brits say Bush is full of it; but Obama says he won’t go after agents who concealed it
  • If the Democrats sided with a foreign government against the President, I imagine we’d be seeing a different reaction.
  • Politics and TV

    I have a problem with this story that supposedly shows what Republicans and Democrats like on TV. The numbers don’t work out. On each side, a parenthesis supposedly shows how the other side ranks it. But the numbers don’t match.

    I would not be surprised to turn out that this list is shoddy, if not completely fictitious.

    Update: I also call BS on the supposed diary of a TSA employee. It plays too much to my biases.