Predictions for 2009
I guess it’s time for my obligatory prediction post for 2009. I did OK last year. I predicted Obama would win the election, although I said it more out of hope than insight. The year was better in movies, although the finances were worse. I did get a job in astronomy and TV continued to suck. But I erred on oil prices. They both got worse and better.
All in all, 2008 was an interesting year for me. I was only partially funded for the first half, but found a job and moved across the country. I read a lot of good books but didn’t write nearly enough. My baby became a little girl and I lost one of my best buds when Huxley went to the Big Pile of Papers To Be Graded In The Sky.
And 2008 was an even more interesting year for the world. An astonishing election, a recession, wars, olympics and particle colliders created a world that was still better than ever, but full of foreboding.
Anyway, here’s my 2009 predictions, for what it’s worth:
In entertainment, the year will be a catastrophe. TV will continue to slide. With Doctor Who on special break and Galactica ending, there’s barely anything I want to watch anymore. The movie slate looks particularly grim. Potter VI should be good but the new Trek movie looks awful.
The international picture is looking shaky. Iran is rattling its saber and I predict will continue to rattle throughout the year at they test Obama. Russia could get dangerous if the price of oil stays down but Hugo Chavez might be forced out. But the real concern for me is Pakistan, which seems on the brink of collapse. Watch them carefully. Or not so carefully, as wars involving nuclear powers are hard to miss. On the bright side, Iraq will keep its shaky grip on the future even as we draw down our presence.
In sports, Florida will beat Oklahoma in a thriller, the Steelers will beat the giants and, tragically, the Yankees will win the World Series. I tried very very hard not to write that last bit but I just can’t see any team that will match them.
The economy will not get worse but will be very slow in recovering, especially if the Democrats pass Cardcheck, trade restrictions or a “stimulus package”. The only way the recession gets worse is if they do all three. I base this just on my gut instinct. All the experts told us the economy was fine when it was collapsing. Now they are all predicting doom and gloom, so it must be turning around.
Obama’s popularity will begin to fade a bit as the economy is slow to recover and debts pile up. He will mostly spend his first year propping up the economy and following a more-competent version of Bush’s foreign policy abroad. He’s going to have way too many balls in the air to devote resources like the stupid Freedom of Choice Act or immigration reform.
That’s it. I expect 2009 to be a slightly better version of 2008. Things will slowly improve but we will still have many concerns that could blow up at any moment. As for Obama, I really believe those predictions above. I keep the getting the feeling that his reign will be less like Clinton or Carter and more like Eisenhower. We’ll get a nice boring four years of competent government.
Of course, we’ll see what happens when the rubber hits the road in 18 days. If Obama does strike out a radical and stupid course, you’ll be hearing about it.