Selection Effect

Parts of the blogosphere are touting the merits of a very sophisticated system for projecting primaries that came close to Indiana and North Carolina’s actual results.


We see this all the time on Wall Street. If you have enough idiots making models of the stock market, it’s likely that one will have a run of success just by chance. When everyone stampedes to that model … well, their luck runs out and you get a hedge fund collapse.

When this guy has predicted seven or eight primaries in a row, then you can call me.