Well, the first BCS rankings are out and there is controversy because the University of South Florida is #2. I already heard Jimmy Johnson moaning that “computer don’t have eyes”, which is making them rank USF so highly.

Johnson, and everyone who is echoing him, is full of crap.

The computers don’t have eyes. They also don’t have memories. They look at the field and rank teams based on their performance this year. They look at South Florida and see a team that beat Auburn on the road, smothered North Carolina, beat West Virginia and destroyed UCF.

The best thing about the computers is that they are objective. They don’t go in for the SMT logic, which goes something like this: USF just can’t, just can’t be the #2 team in the country. They’ve only had a program since the Clinton years. No no no. We’re supposed to look at the teams and rank them based on how good we thought they were in the pre-season, or how much prestige they have. No way can a powerhouse like LSU finish behind USF. It’s just not right.

I have my issues with the computers but they are at least objective. They aren’t ranking the teams based on how famous they are, how much TV exposure they get or how they were ranked in the preseason. They rank them based on their performance and nothing but performance.

To paraphrase Billy Beane, we’re not selling jeans here. I don’t care how good a team “looks” if they’re not that good. I care how they perform week in and week out.

The one good things that might come out of this roller-coaster season is that it will put the final nail in the cofffin of the BCS. If we end up with, let’s say BC and Ohio State in the title game — while 1-loss Oklahoma and LSU are on the sidelines, no one will accept the result. If Ohio State, South Florida, Arizona State and BC all stumble – and we’re left with a whole bunch of 1-loss or even 2-loss teams, no one will respect the result.

We need a playoff. My preference would be something like this:

The thing I like about this system is it maintains tradition, established a bona-fide champ but keeps the final tourney exclusive so that only the best teams can make it. We might have, one year, a #18 ACC champ bull its ways to the final. But even in that extreme case, they will have had to overcome three of the top teams in the country.

We’re gradually headed for precisely this system, which heretics like me have been advocating for ten years. I just wish we could have gotten there sooner. Then, maybe last year, Boise State and USC would have had a crack at Florida.

The Yankees will have to wait one more year to complete their purchase of another World Series trophy.

Update: A few things to observe:

First, now that the Yankees are gone, about eight hours of post-season boredom goes with them. We will not have to sit through yet another endless Yankee at bat. Have you noticed that every Yankee post-season game takes about four and a half hours? Their constant stepping out of the batter’s box, stepping off the pitcher’s mound and slowly plodding the bases in 13-8 games is gone. Thank God.

Second, they couldn’t leave us without a damned soap opera. So now we have to hear about Torre and A-Rod and all the other idiots. They can’t just go quietly like the Phillies.

Third, have you noticed that no one is talking about the Indians? So I will. The team that triumphed is outstanding. They got good starting pitching, some outstanding bullpen work and took advantage of the Yankees’ Achilles Heel – their woeful non-Rivera pitching. They even managed to beat them in an extra-inning game — the pivotal game two. They are young and their lineup is deep. I’m happy they won. They were the better team.

First, the Day of Upsets. Now the New York Mets complete one of the great collapses in baseball history (or, if you’re an optimist, the Phillies complete a great comeback). And Colorado wins 13 of 14 to force a one-game playoff.

I love baseball.

Here is Derek Jacques proving that he is the exact opposite of a Sports Media Twerp.

It wasn’t the wrong call two weeks ago, to declare that the Rockies’ playoff run was effectively over. It took an unbelievably good stretch of baseball for them to force this tiebreaker. But even though I stand by what I wrote then, I’ll admit that one of the great pleasures of this last week has been the Rockies proving me wrong. Following their games down the stretch has more than justified the expense of my Extra Innings package. Teams defying expectations like this is what makes baseball enjoyable.

So tomorrow, as the Rockies face Jake Peavy in Denver, I’ll be rooting for them to finish the job. Maybe I’ll wind up eating a bit of crow as a result, but I hear it doesn’t taste all that bad.

One of the reasons I love Tuesday Morning Quarterback, despite the diatribe I will post later tonight, is that I’ve learned a lot about football. Today, Gary Kubiak of the Houston Texans is basically giving the game to the Atlanta Falcons:

Jeez, Kubiak. Just run up the middle!

Why do I like college football? Days like today. West Virginia upended on Thursday by a USF program younger than my car; Oklahoma nipped by unranked Colorado (a 22.5 point underdog); California barely escapes Oregon with their ass intact; Clemson done in by a bunch of guys with slide rules (I love it when Tech upsets the football factories); Texas crushed by unranked K-state (14.5 point underdog); Rutgers bested by unranked Maryland (16.5 point underdog); Wisconsin frightened by unranked MSU; USC on life support against unranked Washington (20.5 point underdog); Alabama undone by unranked FSU; Florida chokes against unranked Auburn at home (18 point underdog).

It’s not just that five of the top ten lost with two barely escaped with their hides intact. It’s that these seven teams were favored by a combined 116.5 points. Even LSU and Ohio State failed to cover the spread.

I went 7/22 in picking football games this weekend. And I loved it.

This just shows you what the SMTs know. Slowly, their pre-season picks are going down in flames.

Good God, is Ron Jaworski an upgrade over Joe Theisman. I caught the second half of MNF tonight and not only was Jaworksi brilliant, he made Terico and Kornheiser better. Last week’s three-Mike backup crew was pretty good, as well.

Last year, I couldn’t watch Monday Night Football. It was unbearably bad. This year, the improvement is massive. Fewer celebrity interviews (I think tonight’s was Charles Barkley and Barkley is a decent commentator in his own right), less of Dancing with the Stars, more emphasis on football and Jaws’ quick and brilliant breakdowns.

Awesome.

Jayson Stark has an outstanding article at ESPN on the recent HGH story that netted Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel and Rodney Harrison. He points out the double standards. PEDs used by people we hate (Bonds) are vile; they’re forgivable when used by players we like. And a PED scandal in baseball is the end of the world; in football it’s no biggie.

Pathetic.

ESPN’s gurus have officially whimped out. Here are their collective cowardly picks for the 2007 NFL season. As I noted before, there is typically a 50%+ turnover in the NFL teams that make the playoffs from year to year. Regressions to the mean is one heartless bitch. We can expect at least six and probably seven of last year’s playoff teams to be watching them on TV this January. We can also expect six or more groups of last year’s disappointed fans to be happily freezing to death come Christmas time as they paint their team’s color on for the wild card or divisional round.

So what I want to know from the experts is this: Which teams will stumble? Which ones will surprise? Who’s a sleeper? Come on. Dazzle us by picking Cleveland to win the Super Bowl or something.

Well the brave ESPN analysts, people paid for their insight, have given us an exercise in pussy groupthink.

As for the wild card teams, the most likely to fall off the Earth, they have a little more courage. Eight expect Dallas to repeat as wild card; seven tap them to win the division. Only two pick the Jets to make it again and no one thinks the Giants or Chiefs will repeat. The most common wild card picks are Denver (10 votes + 1 division win) and Cincinnati (eight votes plus four division crowns), Dallas and Philly (15 of 16 expect both to make the playoffs) and Seattle (five votes – after nine to take the division).

Buffalo, Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee, Houston, Kansas City, Oakland, Giants, Minnesota, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Arizona are given no chance at the playoffs. Washington, Green Bay and Detroit are given only one vote. I boldly predict that at least one of those teams will make the playoffs and probably at least one will win their division. I’m really surprised no one picked Green Bay to do anything since a) their defense is excellent; b) they have an easy schedule; c) they finished 8-8 last year; d) the media worships Favre.

OK, maybe this is some collective wisdom of crowds thing. After all, the collective picks of Yahoo! users from week-to-week always outperform the analysts because, even though most of them picks lots of upsets, collectively they all pick favorites. Maybe the ESPN analysts understand there will be a lot of turnover, but aren’t agreed on where it will happen.

Nope. Breaking the picks down coward by coward:

Now, fun aside, I understand why they do this. It’s the same reason the fans do. We know that half of last year’s playoff teams will be playing pinochle by New Year’s. We just don’t know which half. And to be honest, if you were a betting man, you’d probably bet on teams to repeat, since you’ve got a 50% chance of winning that bet against only a 25% chance betting on any team that didn’t make the post-season last year.

It’s the old Final Four Dilemma. Picking all favorites is the safest and most rational course since the favorites are the most likely to win. Of course, if you do nothing but pick favorites, you won’t win the betting pool. So most people pick lots of upsets and either end up in first or last place, depending on whether they picked the right upsets or not. There’s always the potential of looking silly if you pick Weber State to win it all. But anyone who tapped George Mason two years looked like a genius. And as Spanky says, why not at least have fun?

No one except Gregg Easterbrook is going to remember who made what NFL prediction when January 2008 rolls around. So why not have fun? Why not go out on a limb and say this is the year New England stumbles? Or be bold and predict the Falcons will be better off without Vick. Something. Anything. I don’t need to turn on ESPN to see a bunch of favorites get picked. I can do that all on my own.

Easterbrook himself went with Football Outsiders picks. The boys over at FO would laugh if anyone took their 0.1 win precision predictions seriously. They’ll be the first to tell you that error bars on those numbers are a few wins, give or take. The entire league is not going to finish sandwiched between 5 and 12 wins. Some team will have a great year and lump up 14 victories. Some team will be awful and only manages two (my money’s on the Raiders for that achievement).

But even the spineless computers only pick two division winners and six playoff teams to repeat. They project a strong AFC North, a surging Jacksonville, bad stumbles and missed playoffs for the Chargers, Cowboys and Saints and the Packers taking the division from the Bears (although I should note that FO thinks that the Saints’ prediction is wrong — the computer is being fooled by the Katrina Year).

Maybe they’re wrong, but at least they’re interesting. At least they’re fun. At least there’s insight. Congratulations, ESPN. You have fewer balls and less sense of adventure than a lump of silicon microchips.

A wonderful article on the best college football game this year, unless Boise State manages to thrill us again.

Michigan had never played a I-AA opponent in its history. Now we know why, the Wolverines were ducking them.

Instead of an easy tune-up for Michigan, Appalachian State leaves with its most profound victory ever and a check for $400,000 that was supposed to be their pay for getting punished.

How sweet it is. I hope this happens to every contender. It seem to be that college football has developed a lot more parity in recent years. I love it.

I love it when Ken Tremendous gets on a roll. Seriously, how can stuff that stupid be published on Page 2 and I’m languishing in obscurity?

ESPN has their NFL preview up, complete with fan ranking of teams and players. Both rankings, and most of the predictions, would be wonderful and insightful — if they were for last year.

Here are ESPN’s power rankings. The only movement was at the bottom. Washington moved from #28 to #19, Miami moved from #26 to #20 for no apparent reason. The Lions moved up five spots in the hopes that the WR stockpiling will finally pay off. The only team that ESPN expects to do appreciably worse this year is the Falcons. Well, DUH! Actually, come to think of it, they might do better without the Vick distraction. Oh, wait, the Chief drop down since everyone is expecting Johnson’s knees to explode.

So what teams do I expect to move? I’d drag the Chargers, Ravens and Bears down a few points since I don’t expect them to be as lucky. Plus the Chargers have Norv Turner now. I’d move the Eagles up since McNabb is back, making them my #3 team. I’d move the Cowboys down since Romo will return to Earth and the Rams up because I don’t think Steven Jackson will. I’d rate the Jaguars way up, the Giants way down, leave the Dolphins in the cellar, move the Packers up. And I agree with them on the movements of the Chiefs, Falcons and Redskins.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Jacksonville will suck and maybe Turner will bring the Lombardi trophy to San Diego. But at least I’d be trying to be bold.

To pre-empt TMQ:

It happens every year. The feckless pre-season predictions come out. Over at CNNSI, Don Banks boldly predicts that teams will pretty much finish in the same order they did last year and ten of the twelve playoff teams will repeat. ESPN hasn’t had their predictionfest yet, but I’m sure we’ll see the same. It’s absurd of course. Only five 2005 playoffs teams made the playoffs in 2006. Only five 2004 playoff teams from 2004 made the dance in 2005. Only six from 2003 made it in 2004.

The combination of short season, high injury rates, salary cap and 3/8 of the teams making the playoffs means that there is a lot of turnover at the top. Only the real dynasties can be counted on year-to-year.

Well, I’ll go ahead and make my predictions right off the top of my head. No knowledge, no training camp video, I haven’t even watched a pre-season game. My preparation consists entirely of reading Pro Football Prospectus.

NFC East – Philly, Washington, Dallas, Giants
NFC North – Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit
NFC South – New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta
NFC West – St. Louis, Seattle, San Fran, Arizona

Playoffs Teams – Philly, Washington, Green Bay, Chicago, NO, St. Louis

AFC East – New England, New York, Miami, Buffalo
AFC North – Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
AFC South – Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Houston
AFC West – Denver, San Diego, KC, Oakland

Playoff Teams – New England, Cincy, Jacksonville, Indy, Denver, San Diego

Superbowl – Philly over Jacksonville

That’s only six teams I expect to repeat. Three of these — Philly, Indy and New England are dynastic. The other three – San Diego, Chicago and New Orleans – were so good last year, I can’t imagine they’d fall completely out of it this year. But they can always suprise. NO’s offense could fall on its face. Donovan McNabb could get hurt again. Lovie Smith’s magic may not work a third year in a row. I haven’t predicted a single division to finish in the same order it did last year.

To be honest, I don’t have faith in any of my picks. It’s the NFL, for Chrissake. Anything can happen. Do I look like an SMT? But let’s see if I’m any more full of crap than the people being paid to make predictions.