Category Archives: Sports

Sports

Why the Excitement Index Rocks

I blogged last week about the excitement index for MLB post-seasons. Here are the scores for the first round:

New York/Minnesota: 5.43
Philadelphia/Cincinnati: 4.28
Texas/Tampa: 7.33
San Francisco/Atlanta: 9.9

I post this because it demonstrates why I like the system. The Texas/Tampa series went five games, so you would think it was the best. But, in fact, the games weren’t that close. Texas won the first two games easily. Game three was close before Tampa pulled away and neither of the last two games were very close. It was a good series, no question, but not a great one by any means.

The Braves series, as the days shaved off my life can attest, was much more tense. All four were decided by one run, one in the 9th inning, another in extra innings. That makes a very good series, even if it only went four games.

Politics, Science and Edumacation, Sports, Taxes and Spending, The Nanny State

Friday Linkorama

Non-political links:

  • Yeah, I love archeology.
  • Really? What kind of busy body are you?
  • I love it when facts trump common wisdom. Freakonomics dismantles the idea that steroid testing is why run-scoring is down. One of the things I didn’t like about Ken Burns’ Tenth Inning was that it accepted as gospel the idea that steroids produced the recent offensive explosion.
  • “Safety” does not make us safe.

    • Political Links:

  • I’ve made it pretty clear that I don’t like Dick Blumenthal. Watch here as Linda McMahon — of the WWE — cleans his clock on how jobs are created. She says it better in ten seconds than he does in almost two minutes of burbling.
  • Seems like Lou Dobbs is every kind of hypocrite.
  • You’re Full of It Watch: the anti-Prop 19ers.
  • So what do you do when your Keynesian economic plan has failed? Blame foreigners.
  • Ah, redevelopment. What a scam.
  • You know, I remember when “binge drinking” actually meant binge drinking, not just drinking.
    • Sports

    Coach? What Coach

    In reading the account of the comedy of errors that ending the Tennessee-LSU game, I was struck by this:

    LSU coach Les Miles had already tossed his headset aside, cutting him off from communication with offensive coordinator Gary Crowton, while he sought out an official on the field to see what the flag was for.

    “I had to call a play because I had nobody to talk to,” Miles said.

    Have we gotten to the point where it’s unusual for a head coach to call a play?

    Sports

    The Excitement Index, 2010 Edition

    A few years ago, I developed a very simple system for measuring how exciting a baseball post-season is.

    I wanted to check just how boring 2007 was turning out so I devised a quick and dirty way to rank the post-seasons. It works like this:

    Every game played gets 1 point.

    Each game get 0.2 extra points for a lead change or tie. So tonight the Sox led 1-0. The Tribe tied it. Then the Sox took the lead for good. 0.4 points. Now if the Tribe had scored a run in the 1st and another in the second, that would have been 0.4 points; but had they taken the lead with two in the 1st, that would have only been 0.2 points. The system rewards a little drawing out of the game.

    Extra innings or a last at-bat victory is worth an extra 0.5 points.
    Finally, the game is credited with 1/(margin of victory). So a 1-run game gets an extra point. A five-run game only gets 0.2 points.

    It’s arbitary, I know. It gives the same weight to an 18-inning game as a 10-inning game. It weights early rallies as much as late ones. It doesn’t account for runners left on base, which is why Game 7 of the 1991 World Series comes in at only 2.50. It weights an exciting game one as much as an exciting game seven. It doesn’t care if a team has come back from being down 3-0.

    In other words, it’s quick and dirty.

    I’m not really looking to rank the greatest game in baseball history. What I’m looking for are series — and post-seasons full of series — that go the distance with lots of exciting close games. And I don’t have the computer resources to do a more thorough job. This one can be calculated just by looking at the line score.

    After tonight, I would add that it doesn’t take into account no-hitters.

    I’ve now expanded the database to go all the way back to 1976. A few highlights:

  • To give you a sense of scale. The average games scores 1.9 points. The average 5-games series scores 7.2. The average 7-game series 10.8. The average modern post-season scores 60 points.
  • The most exciting post-season in history was 2003, which came in at a whopping 74.1 points. You may remember this one as the year both the Red Sox and Cubs were five outs away from a pennant and blew it. Pro-rated, however, the 1991 post-season comes in slightly better (40.2 points pro-rated to 78.5). That was the year the Braves came from nowhere to take the Pirates and then the Twins to seven games.
  • The most boring post-season, as I noted above, was 2007. Five series sweeps and a surprisingly dull 7-game ALCS. It game in at 47.6.
  • The most exciting 7-game series was the 1991 World Series (17.2). As a survivor of that, who watched the greatest Cinderella team ever lose a 7-game heart-breaker, I can vouch for that one. Coming in second is the 2001 World Series (16.1).
  • The dullest 7-game series was 1989’s blowout of San Francisco by Oakland in which the Giants never took a lead. It scored a pathetic 5.4.
  • The most exciting 5-game series was 1980’s Philadelphia-Houston epic ALCS which featured four extra-inning game. At 13.5, it outdid most 7-game series.
  • The most boring 5-gamer was St. Louis blowing out San Diego in the 2005 NLDS. There have been games that have scored better than the 3.9 the whole series did.
  • The most-exciting game, at a whopping 4.1, was game two of the 1997 NLDS. Huh? That game featured 8 ties or lead changes and was won on a walk-off single by Moises Alou. I’m inclined to think this a quirk of the system. Even though game seven of the 2001 world series only score 3.3, I would give that the nod as the greatest game.
  • There are many candidates for boring games. Technically, game seven of the 1996 NLCS scored the lowest (1.06). But the Braves’ 15-0 victory capped a comeback from a 1-3 series deficit. Game five of that series (a 14-0 blowout, 1.07 in the system) is another candidate, as is game one of the World Series that year. But I would probably go with game one of the 2005 ALDS (1.08), Chicago’s 14-2 blowout of Boston.

    • We’ll see how this season shapes up.

    Cool Stuff, Law and Order, Politics, Sports, The Nanny State

    Aussie Linkorama

    Non-political Links:

  • What if the Earth stopped spinning? Remember, according to the Bible, it did.
  • Posnanski writes a great post on the idea that we were wrong about steroids. Notice that most of the people disputing him use the, “Oh come on, it was SOOO obvious!” line of argument.
  • Wonderful color pics of the Depression era.
  • The illustrated guide to a Ph. D..

    • Political Links:

  • You’re Full of Shit Watch: Paul Krugman is full of it on Paul Ryan, Newt is full of it on the Cordoba Mosque and Bill Kristol is just full of it in general.
  • San Francisco is rapidly becoming a joke on Nanny State issues. This is absurd.
  • The idea of removing the lifetime tenure of Supreme Court nominees tends to surface every now and then, mostly when the White House has switched parties. I agree the debate has gotten nastier, although we have Democrats to thank for that (see Bork, Robert). But this is a dumb idea. The best thing about the Court is that the justice are free to rule as they see fit. We’ve seen a number of them go in unexpected directions. And that’s a good thing.
    • Sports

    Mahut-Isner

    This is ridiculous. Nicholas Mahut and John Isner are about to go into day three of a Wimbledon match. The score in the final game is currently 59-59.

    No, I didn’t mistype that. 59-59.

    I know the rules say you have to win by two games. But at some point, don’t the authorities in charge have to put a stop to this? Can’t they just say, “Look, whoever wins the first match tomorrow wins.” I know it’s a disadvantage to whoever doesn’t have serve. So maybe you alternate serve. This has turned from amazement into farce.

    Healthcare, Politics, Sports

    Tuesday Linkorama

    One non-political link:

  • Is FIFA censoring the US non-goal goal? It would not surprise me, actually. When the Olympics were coming to Atlanta, I remember how sensitive the IOC were to any criticism whatsoever.

    • But mostly political links today, I’m afraid.

  • Yet more of the Right Wing’s alternate reality. BP comes up with the idea for an escrow fund at the behest of Republicans. Talk radio denounces it. So do Republicans. Story here. Honestly … if this idea has been proposed by Bush, the talk shows hosts would be hailing it as genius.
  • I must agree that the addiction metaphor for oil doesn’t work for me either. Until we have a viable alternative, oil is all we’ve got. We’re not addicted to oil, we’re addicted to having lots of energy. But casting the issue in that light would change the paradigm from oil enriching oil sheiks to oil keeping our economy going. Can’t have an honest debate, now, can we?
  • Yet another data point on why healthcare is so expensive — a new hospital is being denied. But more hospitals should, in theory, drive down prices, no? (H/T: rpl).
  • Here’s a question. Why is the Right Wing mocking Obama for stopping federal payments to dead people? It’s not like he started the practice. Should we keep writing those checks?
  • Another reason I’m glad I don’t live in Baltimore. And another reason I’m glad I never lived in California.
  • Slight quibble with the point made here about the Saville Commission’s report on Bloody Sunday. I agree that it’s disgusting that no one wants to look back at the awful bloody behavior of the IRA. But, at the same time, we have higher standards for governments than resistance movements. That’s why terrorists cutting people’s heads doesn’t justify torture.
  • Did the Church of Scientology force women to have abortions? At this point, they have yet to earn the benefit of a doubt. But the suggestions is so harsh that I hesitate to believe it.
    • Law and Order, Politics, Sports

    UK Linkorama

  • What don’t those illegal immigrants come into this country legally? Here’s why? I can confirm this from my own experience getting my wife a green card.
  • It seems like every liberal pet peeve is being shoved into the financial reform bill, from swipe card fees to ATM fees. This bill just screams unintended consequences.
  • Yeah. I won’t be moving back to Texas anytime soon.
  • You know what? I don’t care if Elena Kagan’s senior thesis was a paean to socialism. I’d hate to think about essays I wrote as an undergrad resurfacing. What matters is what she thinks now, almost thirty years later.
  • Once sports were pure, untainted by chemicals. Bullshit.
  • Manipulation of crime stats in New York.
  • I keep asking this question: are politicians aware of this whole internet thing? How on Earth can you go around just making shit up?
    • 'Culture', Law and Order, Politics, Sports

    Midweek Linkorama

    All politics this week I’m afraid.

  • I’m starting to warm to Marco Rubio. Anyone who takes the Social Security issue seriously has a good mark in my book. And Crist is worthless.
  • Ta-Nehisi Coates destroys the idea that the Civil War wasn’t about slavery while commenting on the worship of Robert E. Lee. In response to his question of whether you can admire someone who fought for a bad cause, I’d say yes. Many of our WW 2 veterans had great admiration for the German and Japanese soldiers.
  • How on Earth is Marc Thiessen taken seriously? His entire existence is based around dishonestly vindicating the shitty record of the Bush Administration.
  • Reason dig in to figure out why Texas was immune from the worst of the housing bubble. My theory? In Texas, houses are for livin’, not money makin’.
  • Is another McMartin case going on in Georgia? As a parent, I want children protected. But sometimes, it seems to go ridiculous extremes. Meanwhile, the Pope is vigorously defended by religion conservatives despite his complicity in serious repeated abuse.
  • Conservatives, once defenders of liberty, are apparently thrilled that Arizona cops can now approach anyone and demand their papers.
  • I’m just so happy that baseball is back.
    • Sports

    Steroids and Willy

    Joe Posnanski has a great post on the lionization of Willie Mays and other pre-steroid players. Apparently having been born before the spread of steroids makes you a better person. Read the whole thing, but this statement really encapsulates the BS:

    Hirsch, in his own words, believes there’s a big difference between steroids and amphetamines — the former, he says, builds muscle mass and enhances performance while the latter “restores energy and allows someone to perform at full strength.” That seems to be the argument.

    This is such unmitigated bullshit that my computer now reeks. Steroids do not enhance muscle mass all by themselves. You have to combine them with workouts and nutrition to get the benefit. And many players claimed that they used steroids for exactly this reason — that it restored them to full strength and energy.

    Indeed, the main benefit of steroids may have been keeping players on the field (until their hulked-up bodies broke down). McGwire, for example, always had high home run rate but couldn’t stay on the field or at full strength.

    Sports

    Mac

    The news that Mark McGwire used steroids is not surprising.

    What is also not surprising, but incredibly disappointing, is the titanic and hypocritical self-righteousness which still accompanies the issue. McGwire is a Hall-of-Famer who is being denied because he used steroids. This represents the apex of blaming the player — and only the players — for the rampant use of performance enhancing drugs throughout the game. The completely ignores that:

  • The owners certainly knew who was using and who wasn’t. As the Mitchell Report made clear, teams do not make $100 million investments without knowing what players are putting into their bodies.
  • Either the media knew or their much-ballyhooed “inside access” is a load of crap. The Sports Media Twerps are constantly telling us how their access to players and their inside knowledge makes them so much smarter than the rest of us. How could the SMTs have such insider information and not know what was going on? How could they turn on the reporter who found that McGwire was using Andro? I think that’s why the press is so vicious and judgmental on the steroid issue. They are compensating for their own complicity. Shame on them.
  • The fans knew or suspected what was going on. I mean, we knew Mac was taking Andro. We at least suspected that Canseco was using. But we didn’t care as long as homers flew out of parks. We looked the other way and cheered the juicers, which just encouraged more use. Then, suddenly, we got religion when someone we didn’t like — Barry Bonds — broke the home run record. We’re content, of course, to ignore the obvious drug abuse in football.

    • The players did steroids, in part, because they were allowed to. They did them because the owners, the press and the fans knew what was going on and were happy to ignore it. When we suddenly decided PEDs were bad, we refused to take any responsibility. Instead, we have heaped scorn only on the players. They are, after all, rich and popular, so we have to tear them down, right?

    Screw that. I’m all in favor of a clean game. But I’m not in favor of white-washing the past and blaming the most convenient party. It’s time to admit what we allowed to happen.

    Update: Incidentally, the commish knew about steroids in 1993.

    'Culture', Movies, Politics, Sports

    Trouble Ahead; Trouble Behind: Predicting 2010

    Every year, I like to run an article looking ahead and behind, making fearless predictions for the year to come. I’ve written a long piece for the other site on the last year in politics called a Year in Fantasyland. 2009 was the year everyone in politics was delusional — from Democrats who though the nation turned liberal to Republicans who think they’ll ride the tea parties back into power.

    I didn’t comment on it there, but my predictions from last year held up pretty well:

  • I was right that Obama’s popularity would fade as the economy continued to stagnate. And I was right that his foreign policy would be a competent version of Bush’s. I was also right that the economy would be slow to recover.
  • I was right about the Gators, the Steelers and the Yankees, which kind of scares me.
  • I was wrong on the international picture. Pakistan has stayed stable while Iran has reeled from protests. However, at least I was right on Iraq — last month saw zero combat deaths for the US, a stunning achievement that got no press at all.
  • I was wrong on entertainment. There were a solid number of good movies this year and four science fictions films — Star Trek, Avatar, Moon and District 9 — did well critically and financially. That’s the best year in Sci-Fi that I can recall, ever. I still am not watching TV, so I assume it hasn’t improved since it drove me away.

    • Anyway, 2010 is already two weeks old, so I’d better make my predictions so I can be as wrong as ever.

  • The economy will show signs of life, but unemployment will remain stubborn. By the end of the year, debt will be the single issue dominating the discussion. This will lead to…
  • The Republicans, as as result of the above, will gain seats in the Senate and House but fell short of taking back the majority.
  • This, along with the general mood of the nation, will shift Obama’s agenda slightly to the Right. My hope is that this will mean fiscal conservatism. My fear is that it will mean tougher stances on the War on Terror and crime.
  • Sarah Palin peaked in 2009 and 2010 will see her slowly revealed as an ignorant and somewhat deluded ideologue. She’s now got a commenting bit on Fox News, which is the first step in exposing who she really is. By the end of the year, the idea of her running for President will be laughable.
  • Colts over Vikings. Cardinals over Rangers. And parity continues to be the case in the College Football, with Boise State coming very close to cracking the championship game.
  • The Iranian regime will continue to totter, but will come just short of falling. Reform may be the only way the mullahs stay in power. Iraq will continue to wind down and Afghanistan will improve. Our attention will slowly turn toward Yemen and the disaster that is Africa.
  • Television will continue its spell in the doldrums, but late night shows will improve as the comedians get better and more comfortable with mocking Obama. The year at the movies does not look terribly impressive to me. Looking at the most anticipated films does not exactly fill me with enthusiasm. Clash of the Titans, in particular, looks sure to disappoint.
  • It will be a banner year for science. Again.

    • As much as 2009 was the year of fantasy, 2010 will be, I think and hope, the year of reality. And about time too.