Category Archives: Politics

Observational Linkorama

  • You want to know why healthcare has problems in this country? Stuff like this. A researcher develops a checklist to reduce hospital infections. But he has to with-hold because of privacy concerns (which do not apply to a study like this).
  • Boy that War on Terror is going well. A couple is banned for life for taking pictures of their kids.
  • Did Giuliani really reduce crime in NYC? The whole country was seeing an improvement. I agree that Giuliani gets a bit too much credit for the improvement in Gotham. But he was an intrinsic part of the national push that reduced crime, engaging in the policies that everyone else was using.
  • Copyright violations apparently only work one way. I’m waiting for my daughter’s smiling face to appear on a diaper ad.
  • No, Virginia, They are Not Better Than Us

    Talk about BS studies, this one claims that Britain now has a higher standard of living than the US, since the falling dollar has raised Britain’s per capita above America’s. The devil is in the details, however:

    The Oxford analysts also point out that Americans benefit from lower prices than those in Britain. With an adjustment made for this “purchasing power parity”, the average American has more spending power than his UK counterpart and pays lower taxes. (In the run-up to Christmas many Britons travelled to New York and other American cities to take advantage of the strength of sterling against the dollar and those lower prices.)

    However, the British typically have significantly longer holidays than Americans as well as access to “free” healthcare.

    The figures may be of small comfort to Britons worried about house prices and facing a severe squeeze on their incomes this year as a result of record petrol prices and rising energy bills.

    Citigroup, which was the most accurate forecaster of Britain’s economy last year, predicts the slowest rise in consumer spending this year since 1992.

    Doh!

    Predictions for 2008

    2007 was a good year, as far as I’m concerned. My Braves and Packers had good years. The Bulldogs were fantastic. Gridlock reigned in Washington while hope began to appear in Iraq. Despite mortgage collapses and oil, the economy kept going.

    Really, any year that humanity manages to stumble through and still be intact is a good one. We had problems in Burma and Kenya and Iraq and the Sudan. But things are still better than they’ve ever been. And hope spring eternal.

    For me, personally, it was the best year of my life. For one reason — I became a dad. Abby is highlight of my life so far. I’m on the brink of being out of astronomy — I’m about to go to 20 hours pay for 40+ hours work because my grants are almost exhausted. But she makes everything better.

    My 2007 and 2006 predictions are beyond the spam event horizon. So I can’t review those. But here are my bold predictions for 2008 (Note: I wrote this before Obama’s triumph in Iowa). I’m in a hopeful optimistic mood right now. I don’t know why.

  • I’ll go ahead and say it — Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States. My brain tells me that Hillary will find a way to win — the Clintons are so ruthless and determined and they pull all the strings. An Iowa win rarely translates to a national win and Hillary still leads the nation by a long shot.

    But you know what? I’d rather be wrong on Obama than right on Hillary.

  • The Patriots will complete the inevitable; LSU will beat Ohio State — barely; and — since I do this every year no matter what — the Braves will win the World Series.
  • Some movie this year will be a classic but the year will be a financial disaster for Hollywood. James Berardinelli broke down the movies this year. I think he’s a bit pessimistic but this could be yet another “fluke” that shows Hollywood is losing their audience.

    In terms of quality, however, I feel a good year coming on. Let’s just hope Crystal Skull doesn’t disappoint.

  • We will begin a slow withdrawal from Iraq. The fragile calm we’ve created will bend, but not break. A year from now, the violence will be, at worst, up slightly. This goes double if we elect someone like McCain or Obama.
  • I’ll get a job in astronomy.
  • Oil prices will finally begin to ease off, slightly. The massive profits of the last few years will result in more drilling and refining and an easing up. I don’t think we’ll ever see the days of sub $50/bl return. The world demand is just too high.
  • TV will continue to suck. 24 lost me last year — I stopped watching halfway through. BSG looks like it will end well, at least. But I have very little interest in anything that comes across the small screen these days.
  • Last Linkorama of the Year

  • It’s getting better all the time. Record low murder rate in NYC — although better medical care probably has something to do with it.
  • A linkorama to a linkorama. Radley Balko rounds up the latest in our insane War on Drugs.
  • How does TSA measure success? By how much they harass you. That bodes well for our security and ease of travel.
  • Peggy Noonan on a reasonable candidate. She’s one of the few “conservatives” worth reading these days.
  • When it’s Cats Against Rats, I tend to favor the felines.
  • You know those steady graduation rates and closing race gap in education? Not so fast. I don’t have the bandwidth to look at the study and see if it’s full of crap or not.
  • Bill Kristol, the voice of conservatism. ugh.
  • Megan on Paul

    If you want intelligent criticism of Ron Paul, try Megan McCardle’s dissection of his tax policy. And if you want intelligent defense, try the same source:

    The New York Times’ willingness to believe that Ron Paul is a Nazi-lover seems like a symptom of a general willingness to believe that people with extreme political views that you disagree with all hang out together in some big club, where they exchange tips on stamping out liberty, and recipes for Molotov cocktails . Memo to the right: the greens do not hang out with the Maoists1. Memo to the left: the Nazis and the anarcho-capitalists hate each other with a passion seldom found outside a faculty compensation committee meeting. It should be rather obvious from listening to Dr. Paul that he’s no crypto-fascist. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go research Dennis Kucinich’s links to the Shining Path.

    and

    Ron Paul: not a Nazi. I’m slightly bemused by the fact that the Nazis are so eager to claim Ron Paul as one of their own. I mean, not that Ron Paul isn’t a perfectly nice guy, and so forth, but isn’t claiming that you’re friends with famous people who’ve never met you something you’re supposed to grow out of in high school?

    On second thought, I suppose a Nazi is definitionally someone who never grew out of anything in high school.

    Quote of the Day

    From Megan McCardle:

    Incidentally, is anyone else amused by the lightening speed with which filibustering has gone from [undemocratic obstructionism/a vital institution for protecting minority interests] to [an important tool for preserving Federalism/an obscene mechanism for thwarting the clear Will of the People]? No one’s even bothered to come up with a better fig leaf than “but it’s different when my guys are in charge!

    The War on Science Funding

    Being a scientist, I hear an endless stream of nonsense about how anti-science the Republicans are and how much they slash and burn science funding to pay for their wars and corporate interests. It’s bullshit, of course. One of the principle opponents of the space program was Walter Mondale — a democrat. The superconducting super-collider was killed by Bill Clinton — a Democrat. And it is mainly liberals and progressives, notably Gregg Easterbrook, who demand that all of NASA’s work be practical. I told everyone that science funding would be hurt with the Dems in power.

    I hate being right all the time.

    In short, this omnibus spending bill is at best disappointing, and at worst a total disaster, for science funding in the US. Overall, the research agencies all received a meager increase in their budgets (roughly 1% for NIH, 2% for NSF, 3% for NASA, and 2% for the DOE). That’s disappointing because these increases don’t keep up with inflation, are far, far short of the Administration’s request and the American Competitiveness Initiative, and won’t support all the scientific projects in the pipeline.

    Oh, it gets better. The Democrats are ending our participation in ITER, the foremost nuclear fusion project. Nuclear fusion, which has just passed breakeven, has the potential to replace all of our fossil fuels and nuclear fission plants with clean safe nuclear energy. But the “we love the environment and hate global warming” Democrats aren’t interested.

    Of course, everyone is blaming Bush for this (and specifically, the war funding). But the Dems came in under the President’s request. This was one of the few areas were they controlled spending.

    Yes, I have a personal stake in this (for now, at least). At some point, I’ll put up my post on that subject. But you just have to savor the irony. The anti-intellectual Bush is more interested in funding science than the super-enlightened Democrats.

    Wednesday Linkorama

  • It’s not enough we have that silly online gambling ban. Now, we’re going to have to pay $100 billion in trade agreements to keep it.
  • Carbon capture a good option? Eh, not so much. Carbon capture is one of those things that worries me. There is a stampede to embrace this idea and little, if anything, is known about the environmental impact.
  • From my old stomping grounds, a cop roughs up two jaywalkers. Oh, it was a war veteran and his pregnant fiance. Nice.
  • Jesus, is the MPAA a bunch of lunatics. You really should see This Film Is Not Yet Rated, if nothing else for the scene of Maria Bello discussing her pubic hair.
  • Thursday Linkorama

  • You want to know why Africa is struggling? Because people are unwilling to call out monsters like Robert Mugabe.
  • What the hell is wrong with people? A high school gets locked down because someone broke a mercury thermometer. Eeek! Contaminants!
  • Fresh off the success of banning guns, Britain wants to ban samurai swords. No news yet on whether they want to ban pointy sticks.
  • Police get called out because a teacher is doing karaoke. This panic in public schools over anything and everything is getting out of hand and getting our kids used to being in a State of Terror (which might be the intent). Here in Austin, they evacuated a school because of a ticking sound. Turned out an air-conditioner cover was rattling.
  • Ten media myths about the economy. Anyone who turns to our celebutwit news hosts for knowledge is getting the ignorance they deserve.
  • Attacking the Fair Tax: Naivete

    Usual caveat: While I oppose the Fair Tax, that doesn’t mean I support the current system. I would just prefer a VAT or a flat tax.

    I’ve attacked the Fair Tax because it falsely promises a big pay hike for Americans (a claim Boortz himself has withdrawn) and because I think the prebate would be a disaster. But I’ll hit it again because I need the blog traffic from the Fair Tax Movementarians responding.

    One common argument for the Fair Tax over the flat tax goes like so:

    We tried a flat tax with Reagan’s tax reform. And it wasn’t flat for long. Congress immediately began revising the tax and making it hideously complicated again.

    This has two problems. The first is factual — the 1986 Tax Reform did not create anything approaching a flat tax. It simplified the taxes but not very much, as anyone who owns a business could tell you. It created all kinds of tax incentives and breaks. Claiming that the 1986 Tax Reform Act was the equivalent of a flat tax is like claiming my cat is a hippopotamus. Yes, they are both fat mammals. The similarities end there.

    The second problem is naivete. The Fair Taxers assert that the Fair Tax will start simple and stay simple. That Congress will be unable to work all kinds of strange complications into it.

    This is total garbage. Just to list a few things Congress will try to do with the the Fair Tax:

  • The first effort will be to raise the tax rate and spending allowance, to shift more and more of the burden onto “the rich”.
  • The second effort will be to abolish the uniformity of the tax rate. Democrats will claim it is unfair to tax luxury yachts at the same rate as groceries or Porsches at the same rate as housing. That the prebate supposedly eliminates the tax on necessities will be irrelevant because no one will think that way. They will see the prebate as a gift of government, not a refund (especially if Dems raise the spending allowance). Moreover, do you really think Mike Huckabee — a huge supporter of sin taxes — will let the Fair Tax through without demanding higher tax rates on cigarettes, alcohol and porn? You do? Do you know that I have access to $40 million in Nigerian banking funds and just need your help to get them into this country?
  • The third effort is more subtle. It will only be a matter of time until certain businesses demand special treatment. Our absurd system of farm subsidies is facing deserved assault from Free Trade agreements. How long will it be before the farmers acquiesce to a reduction in subsidies in return for a reduction in the Fair Tax on food? How long until steel manufacturers demand a lower Fair Tax rate on domestic steel to prop up the industry? How long until American auto-makers demand a higher Fair Tax rate on imports?
  • Granted, the potential for political abuse is a little lower and more transparent than with the current system. But to sit here and claim that the Fair Tax will be magically immune from the Washington need to endlessly tinker and update and improve is incredibly naive.