Category Archives: Politics

Unpolarized

Steve Chapman has an interesting article over at Reason arguing that the country is not polarized at it seems:

Here’s a solution to that problem: Stop watching cable TV news channels and listening to politicians. Using them as a gauge of how divided we are is like using the National Hockey League to estimate the level of violence in America.

Most Americans aren’t rabid liberals or fanatical conservatives. Gallup recently found that more people call themselves conservative than liberal or moderate. But other polls contradict it. According to a 2008 survey by the National Opinion Research Center, when you give them more options—extremely liberal, liberal, slightly liberal, moderate, slightly conservative, conservative, or extremely conservative—you find that the largest ideological group is moderates, with 37.3 percent compared to 34.5 percent for the three conservative groups combined.

Add up the moderates and those who are only slightly liberal or slightly conservative and those who don’t know—those clustered in the middle of the road—and you’ve got about two-thirds of the citizenry. As political scientists Morris Fiorina of Stanford’s Hoover Institution and Samuel Abrams of Harvard put it, “the American electorate in 2008 is much better described as centrist than polarized.”

Read the whole thing. I agree, to some extent. I think the American people feel a lot more polarized than they actually are. I know many conservatives, for example, who are routinely hyperventilating about how socialist Obama is and how about he’s destroying this country. And I know many liberal who thought Bush was a fascist.

But that hysteria is a product of warped perception. In reality, if you were to take the parties out of it and just ask people about issues, you would find that our political divisions are not nearly that deep. The problem is that conservative, in particular are being fed a steady diet of right populist talk show bullshit from jerks who have a vested interest in making things feel a lot worse than they are. I can’t stand to watch/listen to them anymore. When Hannity or Limbaugh or Beck or anyone comes on the radio (or liberal talking heads, for that matter), I change the station. I’m getting tired of having my emotions played with. I’m getting tired of being told that everytime Obama does something dumb, it’s because of some vast communist conspiracy or his hatred of America. I’m getting tired of being told that everyone who objects to Obama’s policies is a racist monster. As Ta-Nehisi recently said:

I find that listening to political operatives to be unrevealing. They’re always selling. It’s why I can’t watch cable news. It’s like watching two used car salesmen fight it out on MILF Island. How’s that for mixed metaphors.

That’s a perfect metaphor. I don’t feel like I’m watching political debates any more; I’m watching a bad episode of reality TV. It has the appearance of reality, but it’s all staged and contrived. Everything is exaggerated to the nth degree; small problems became major ones; major problems become earth-shattering calamities. Obama just bowed to the Japanese Emperor. He shouldn’t have. But to listen to the punditsphere, you would think he burned the American flag.

Our politicians, unfortunately, are playing right along with this game. I recently plotted out the distribution of various political ranking systems — you know, those ones that claims “Senators Schmickiebick is the 9th most liberal members of Congress”. I expected to see the Gaussian distribution I would probably get if I polled Americans.

Instead, it was bimodal. You had one tall peak at one extreme liberal end and a tall peak at one extreme conservative end. In between, there were only a handful of McCains and Liebermans and Hagels.

But that’s not the way America thinks. If we really were that polarized, opinion polls would never change. Instead, the opinion of the majority constantly shifted and changes. Healthcare, for example, will vary in support over time from 60% to 40%. That only happens if America is a much more moderate country than we think. No polarized conservative would ever support healthcare; no polarized liberal would oppose it. Only moderates can change their minds like that.

Our politics are polarized. Our commentariat is crazy. But the nation, apart from a small percentage, are fine.

Weekend Linkorama

  • You must watch Newsweek’s the decade in seven minutes.
  • The GOP continues to implode. Now they want to censure Linday Graham. As I keep saying at the other blog, the RINOs were not the GOPs problem. It was the so-called hardcore loyal conservatives who rallied behind massive spending, corruption and torture.
  • What he said. And him, to some extent. I don’t like many of the policies the Democrats are implementing and think the party as a whole suffers from a dangerous amount of hubris. But I’m tired of the outrage, the crackpot theories, the glib comparisons to the USSR. What the hell happened to these people?
  • It seems to me that the environmentalists still haven’t learned how to maximize the ratio of gain to pain. Making everyone dirty, smelly and miserable to save a few gallons of water seems poorly thought out.
  • Computers. Meh. What do they know?
  • This is disturbing. What’s the point of electing Democrats if they’re going to go all uber-law-and-order on us? Remember when they used to protect civil liberties?
  • The latest TSA madness — snowglobes.
  • Don Boudreaux destroys Paul Krugman’s glib assertion that labor market controls will bring down unempoyment. I must admit to being baffled by Krugman’s post. He does now that you need n>1 data points to reach a conclusion, yes? Yes? No.
  • Indecisive

    I’m a little bit tired of the meme that Obama has been “indecisive” on Afghanistan. We’re coming off an Administration and a punditsphere that spent years telling us that all was well in Iraq; that the perceived violence was just a fiction of the evil liberal media; that anyone calling for more troops or the firing of Rumsfeld was a RINO and a triator.

    Then, when they lost an election, they suddenly realized we need a change of leadership, a change of strategy and more troops. And they’ve spent the last three years claiming credit for that.

    Please.

    The more I watch the debate over Iraq and Afghanistan — especially from the neocon side — the more I realize that this is just a fucking game to them. Thousands of lives, national credibility and future terror attacks are background to their insane political game. There are plenty of true patriots out there within the Republican party and the commentariat . But the to likes of guys like Bill Kristol and Karl Rove, the WOT is just a means to score points against their real enemies — the Democrats.

    Read the Bill, Or Not

    I think I agree with Bartlett. These calls for lawmakers to read the bill — which started with the Patriot Act — are bit misguided. The bills are written in massive legalese and the final version is often wildly different from the early versions. There is little point in wasting their time on this.

    I think these people are missing the forest for the trees. The problem with the bills isn’t that Congress Creatures don’t read them; the problem is that they are so complicated in the first place. The problem is that citizens are expected to have read these laws and may get fined or jailed if the violate Section (1), subsection 9, paragraphs 9, sentence 2, John 17:3. It’s almost as if the law were written in Martian — you’ll know when you’ve broken it when the cops arrest you.

    Robert Heinlein once suggested that we needed a “Plain English Amendment” to the Constitution that would require laws to be comprehensible to educated citizens. He was thinking specifically of the tax code, which is so badly written that even the damned IRS doesn’t understand it. I’m sure there are big unintended consequences and 70 lawyers would be happy to tell me why laws have to be written in such legalistic jargon. But I still think Heinlein had a point. It’s not reasonable to expect citizens to have their own lawyers to interpret 2000 pages laws for them.

    Weekend Linkorama

  • Ouch.
  • More adventures from Maricopa County.
  • Friersdorf has a great open letter. The problem with the GOP is not the RINOs. It’s the corrupt lying “real conservatives”.
  • A heartbreaking story.
  • I think it’s great that the federal government is protecting us from … brass?
  • All across the world, they comin’ to America. Hey, if they want to work and obey the law, welcome aboard.
  • You stay classy, WBC.
  • Thursday Linkorama

  • What? Not another sex scandal involving one of these uber-moral conservatives standing against homosexual hedonism?
  • Wonderful. The Iraqis are using pseudoscience to find bombs.
  • I agree with Lindsay Graham. The GOP can not get too fixated on ideological purity if they want to become a political force again. There are many districts, particularly in the northeast, where a hardline conservative can’t win but a moderate can. If the GOP runs such moderates, they won’t get their “pure” conservative Congress. But they will shift the Congressional Gaussian significantly to the right.
  • The Dems want to put nutritional info on vending machines. I guess because putting it in restaurants worked so well.
  • Occasionally, the Obama Administration makes me happy. When they are at least acknowledging the problems that Sarbanes-Oxley has created, that’s a good thing. And more than the last “pro-business” Administration did.
  • I have this crazy idea that one day government will fix problems before they blow up in our face.
  • Why the GOP is still irrelevant. They can’t even come up with earmark reform.
  • Megan McArdle explores the idea that the VA is a model for healthcare reform. The most important point? The VA provides less than half of the healthcare veterans need and receive.
  • The New Yorker asks why our murder rate is so high. I reject all the conventional arguments, which seem to be focus on our not worshiping government enough.
  • Thursday Linkorama

  • Bruce Bartlett speaks. I agree with everything he says, especially about the Republican Party being brain dead. It’s horrific to watch, especially in the conservative friends and family I know that are following them into the abyss.
  • Nice. Pseudo-scientific woo like “therapeutic touch” is sneaking into the healthcare bill. This will not only drive up expenses, but move money to fund bullshit. Penn and Teller’s show had a great segment on Emily Rosa, the 11-year-old girl who proved TT was garbage.
  • There is no excuse for this.
  • How PETA sees abuse. I have to agree (with the graph; not with PETA).
  • It’s possible Massachusetts could replace Ted Kennedy with someone even worse.
  • Another “global warming is a myth” myth debunked. IN this case, it’s the “arctic ice is recovering” misrepresentation.
  • More stadium dumbassery.
  • Tuesday Linkorama

  • Just when you thought Republicans couldn’t get any dumber.
  • People are upset with Crumb’s version of Genesis (NSFW). Probably what bothers them most is that he leaves in the parts of Genesis — such as Lot’s daughters — that they’d prefer quietly left out.
  • A scary story about kids being taken away from parents because they are obese.
  • Compare and contrast: the environmental movement in a state run by controlling environmentalists and one barely run at all. If you want green technology to advance, you’re going to have to let the market do it.
  • Those awful CEOs with their evil salaries. Good thing our public option mortgage company is above such reckless behavior. Oh, wait.
  • Alan Grayson is now embarrassing the Democrats. Last week, he got praise from Greenwald for questioning a fellow Congressman about bills of attainder — apparently, removing ACORN’s funding is the equivalent of fining or jailing someone. I was unimpressed and continue to be unimpressed. Grayson spews rhetoric that appeases far leftists. But I tend to think that stuff belongs on talk radio, not Congress. Of course, the GOP has just about its entire membership talking like a an army of Alan Graysons.
  • Re-analysis shows that global warming has not reversed and, indeed, the last decade has been the warmest in the 130 years we have measurements for.
  • A Competent Defense

    The Todd Willingham Case continues to gather attention. This is a ten-minute interview with Willingham’s defense attorney. His defense attorney.

    Ta-Nehisi:

    It’s like watching a root-docter, who’s just performed a heart transplant, try to explain why the patient is dead. I deeply suspect that this is all unexceptional. There is no fool-proof anything in this world–least of all a death penalty.

    I am lying here with my jaw in my lap. This is the government we are trusting with the power of life and death.

    That ticker on the death penalty just moved a step closer to oppose.